NBA games

CHI @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
97–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI2030182997
BOS31382827124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home BOS
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
DeMar DeRozan S 26 19 2 6
Coby White S 30 19 1 3
Patrick Williams S 28 14 7 2
Ayo Dosunmu 24 10 0 2
Alex Caruso 19 8 2 2
Jevon Carter 17 8 1 2
Nikola Vucevic S 25 8 8 2
Andre Drummond 13 5 6 0
Torrey Craig 13 3 1 0
Zach LaVine S 25 2 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 35 30 8 6
Jayson Tatum S 36 21 7 4
Al Horford S 28 16 9 6
Jrue Holiday S 33 14 7 9
Derrick White S 29 14 3 7
Payton Pritchard 23 11 5 2
Sam Hauser 21 9 10 2
Dalano Banton 15 5 0 0
Luke Kornet 19 4 3 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 2 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:30 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 28-foot three pointer (Jrue Holiday assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
14%
2 Jayson Tatum BOS
10%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
4 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
5 Dalano Banton BOS
8%
6 DeMar DeRozan CHI
8%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 Coby White CHI
7%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
25%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.3 8.0 5.1
2 Zach LaVine CHI 22.2 5.1 4.3
3 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.2 4.4 4.2
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.9 4.0 4.6
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.2 8.9 3.7
6 Coby White CHI 14.6 3.4 4.1
7 Derrick White BOS 14.1 4.0 5.2
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 13.1 7.3 4.6
9 Sam Hauser BOS 10.2 3.0 1.4
10 Alex Caruso CHI 10.0 2.9 1.7
11 Patrick Williams CHI 8.6 3.9 1.3
12 Payton Pritchard BOS 8.3 3.1 2.0
13 Al Horford BOS 8.1 6.2 2.6
14 Neemias Queta BOS 6.1 4.8 0.7
15 Torrey Craig CHI 5.8 4.4 1.0
16 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 5.7 1.9 1.3
17 Luke Kornet BOS 5.2 4.0 0.7
18 Andre Drummond CHI 4.6 6.1 0.7
19 Jevon Carter CHI 3.9 1.2 0.9
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 3.5 1.1 0.5
21 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.4 2.0 0.4
22 Dalano Banton BOS 3.4 2.3 0.8
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.0 1.8 0.5
24 Oshae Brissett BOS 1.8 2.2 0.4
25 Dalen Terry CHI 1.7 1.3 0.8
26 Julian Phillips CHI 1.5 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.