NBA games

NO @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
116106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NO36202931116
LAC23322823106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO away
home LAC
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 34 32 6 5
Brandon Ingram S 35 30 4 5
Herbert Jones S 24 14 4 4
Jonas Valanciunas S 28 12 8 4
Jordan Hawkins 20 8 4 1
Dyson Daniels S 36 7 8 5
Naji Marshall 27 5 8 1
Jose Alvarado 16 4 5 1
Larry Nance Jr. 20 4 3 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 39 34 8 2
Kawhi Leonard S 34 20 8 3
Norman Powell 28 20 1 0
Ivica Zubac S 22 11 5 0
James Harden S 37 8 5 10
Terance Mann S 24 7 2 5
Russell Westbrook 14 3 4 2
Daniel Theis 21 3 4 2
P.J. Tucker 22 0 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:29 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 19-foot pullup jump shot (Jonas Valanciunas assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zion Williamson NO
13%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
12%
3 Paul George LAC
11%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
11%
5 James Harden LAC
11%
6 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO
9%
8 Herbert Jones NO
8%
9 Terance Mann LAC
8%
10 Dyson Daniels NO
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
41%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Brandon Ingram NO 24.4 5.2 5.3
2 Paul George LAC 24.2 6.3 4.3
3 Zion Williamson NO 23.8 6.6 5.3
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.9 5.0 3.6
5 James Harden LAC 18.6 4.9 6.3
6 Russell Westbrook LAC 15.0 6.1 5.5
7 Jordan Hawkins NO 14.7 4.0 2.3
8 Jonas Valanciunas NO 13.3 8.9 2.4
9 Bones Hyland LAC 12.3 2.4 3.2
10 Norman Powell LAC 12.1 2.7 1.7
11 Herbert Jones NO 12.0 4.6 2.9
12 Dyson Daniels NO 10.6 4.7 3.8
13 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.5 8.8 1.3
14 Naji Marshall NO 8.6 3.4 2.2
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.6 4.3 2.0
16 Daniel Theis LAC 6.1 4.6 1.2
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 4.7 2.9 1.0
18 Larry Nance Jr. NO 4.7 3.4 0.9
19 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.7 2.8 0.8
20 Kobe Brown LAC 3.6 1.6 0.6
21 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.5 3.1 0.5
22 Amir Coffey LAC 3.3 1.5 0.9
23 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 3.0 1.0 1.3
24 Cody Zeller NO 2.8 3.3 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.