NBA games

SA @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
112–118
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA35202631112
GS32272732118

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home GS
21% 79%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Vassell 27 24 4 1
Keldon Johnson S 34 22 12 4
Victor Wembanyama S 35 22 9 4
Cedi Osman 18 11 1 0
Jeremy Sochan S 33 7 6 4
Doug McDermott 19 7 1 4
Tre Jones 17 7 5 2
Zach Collins S 31 6 8 6
Malaki Branham S 19 6 0 1
Charles Bassey 7 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 35 35 3 6
Dario Saric 26 20 7 4
Klay Thompson S 29 15 3 6
Jonathan Kuminga 20 12 1 2
Andrew Wiggins S 25 10 4 0
Moses Moody S 17 9 4 1
Kevon Looney S 24 6 8 4
Chris Paul 29 5 5 10
Gary Payton II 19 4 3 0
Trayce Jackson-Davis 5 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Moses Moody · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Moses Moody makes dunk (Klay Thompson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach Collins SA
11%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
3 Keldon Johnson SA
10%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
9%
5 Klay Thompson GS
8%
6 Kevon Looney GS
8%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
8 Draymond Green GS
7%
9 Malaki Branham SA
7%
10 Stephen Curry GS
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
28%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
27%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 28.1 4.8 4.6
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 19.5 10.2 3.3
3 Devin Vassell SA 18.3 3.9 3.1
4 Zach Collins SA 17.9 6.7 3.4
5 Keldon Johnson SA 17.1 6.3 4.6
6 Klay Thompson GS 15.1 3.4 2.6
7 Jeremy Sochan SA 13.2 5.4 4.0
8 Andrew Wiggins GS 13.1 5.0 1.9
9 Chris Paul GS 11.8 3.4 6.4
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS 10.9 3.5 1.4
11 Dario Saric GS 10.8 5.7 2.0
12 Malaki Branham SA 9.6 2.2 2.2
13 Draymond Green GS 9.4 4.0 5.2
14 Tre Jones SA 8.8 2.8 4.6
15 Brandin Podziemski GS 8.1 3.8 2.3
16 Kevon Looney GS 7.4 9.0 2.6
17 Moses Moody GS 7.1 3.7 1.3
18 Doug McDermott SA 6.8 1.7 2.1
19 Cedi Osman SA 6.4 2.5 1.2
20 Gary Payton II GS 5.2 3.0 0.9
21 Julian Champagnie SA 4.2 2.0 0.8
22 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 4.1 2.9 0.8
23 Cory Joseph GS 4.0 1.5 2.2
24 Charles Bassey SA 3.7 4.2 0.9
25 Devonte' Graham SA 3.5 1.3 1.3
26 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.4 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.