NBA games

SAC @ MIN

NBA Target Center ·Final
124–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC38322232124
MIN31331532111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIN) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home MIN
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 37 36 7 12
Harrison Barnes S 33 18 4 2
Malik Monk 30 17 2 0
Domantas Sabonis S 39 15 11 5
Kessler Edwards 18 10 2 1
Kevin Huerter S 24 10 2 3
Trey Lyles 19 9 7 0
Davion Mitchell 9 5 0 1
JaVale McGee 8 4 6 1
Chris Duarte S 22 0 5 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Anthony Edwards S 40 35 7 5
Karl-Anthony Towns S 38 27 11 4
Rudy Gobert S 36 12 11 0
Troy Brown Jr. 25 10 7 0
Naz Reid 18 9 1 0
Mike Conley S 30 6 3 9
Nickeil Alexander-Walker S 22 6 1 2
Kyle Anderson 18 4 1 4
Shake Milton 13 2 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Layup (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes layup (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
16%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC
11%
4 Rudy Gobert MIN
11%
5 De'Aaron Fox SAC
10%
6 Harrison Barnes SAC
9%
7 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
8 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN
8%
9 Mike Conley MIN
7%
10 Chris Duarte SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
23%
Layup
42%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 27.1 4.5 5.6
2 Anthony Edwards MIN 26.9 6.0 6.4
3 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 24.7 8.6 3.6
4 Domantas Sabonis SAC 23.7 11.9 6.9
5 Kevin Huerter SAC 14.4 4.3 2.7
6 Rudy Gobert MIN 13.1 10.8 1.7
7 Malik Monk SAC 12.5 3.3 5.4
8 Mike Conley MIN 10.3 2.7 5.4
9 Naz Reid MIN 10.2 3.7 1.2
10 Harrison Barnes SAC 10.0 3.1 1.5
11 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.7 4.2 4.0
12 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 7.3 2.8 2.5
13 Trey Lyles SAC 7.2 3.2 0.8
14 Davion Mitchell SAC 6.2 1.5 2.4
15 Shake Milton MIN 6.1 2.3 1.3
16 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.3 2.1 0.6
17 Leonard Miller MIN 5.3 3.7 0.9
18 JaVale McGee SAC 5.0 3.7 0.7
19 Chris Duarte SAC 4.8 2.0 1.0
20 Colby Jones SAC 4.4 1.4 0.6
21 Josh Minott MIN 4.0 1.7 1.0
22 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.1 1.9 0.6
23 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 3.0 2.1 0.8
24 Daishen Nix MIN 3.0 0.6 1.3
25 Filip Petrusev SAC 2.6 1.7 0.6
26 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.6 1.4 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.