NBA games

WSH @ MIL

NBA Fiserv Forum ·Final
128–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH35262839128
MIL34263239131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIL) / 10 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Poole S 34 26 5 7
Kyle Kuzma S 31 22 4 4
Tyus Jones S 31 22 7 7
Corey Kispert 33 20 5 1
Landry Shamet 24 15 2 0
Daniel Gafford S 29 8 9 4
Danilo Gallinari 18 7 4 1
Johnny Davis 12 6 5 0
Deni Avdija S 28 2 5 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brook Lopez S 32 39 6 1
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 37 31 9 3
Damian Lillard S 37 31 6 10
Malik Beasley S 27 9 11 1
Khris Middleton S 13 7 1 5
Cameron Payne 17 4 3 3
MarJon Beauchamp 13 3 3 2
AJ Green 4 3 0 0
Bobby Portis 25 2 6 1
Pat Connaughton 27 2 4 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kyle Kuzma · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Kyle Kuzma makes 25-foot three point jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
15%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
3 Jordan Poole WSH
11%
4 Daniel Gafford WSH
10%
5 Brook Lopez MIL
9%
6 Khris Middleton MIL
9%
7 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
9%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Deni Avdija WSH
8%
10 Malik Beasley MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
47%
Layup
13%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 33.6 11.5 7.0
2 Damian Lillard MIL 26.1 4.2 7.1
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.4 5.5 5.3
4 Jordan Poole WSH 19.9 3.5 4.2
5 Bobby Portis MIL 14.4 7.2 1.8
6 Deni Avdija WSH 14.2 5.0 3.8
7 Khris Middleton MIL 14.2 4.7 4.3
8 Brook Lopez MIL 12.7 6.3 1.5
9 Malik Beasley MIL 11.6 4.0 1.6
10 Tyus Jones WSH 10.9 3.0 4.3
11 Daniel Gafford WSH 10.7 8.1 1.5
12 Corey Kispert WSH 8.8 2.5 1.8
13 Cameron Payne MIL 7.8 2.2 3.0
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 7.7 3.7 2.2
15 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.3 3.5 1.6
16 MarJon Beauchamp MIL 7.0 2.5 1.3
17 Landry Shamet WSH 6.5 1.8 1.3
18 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.7 1.9 0.7
19 Johnny Davis WSH 4.2 1.9 0.7
20 AJ Green MIL 4.1 1.0 0.8
21 Mike Muscala WSH 3.9 2.2 0.6
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 3.7 1.6 1.0
23 Chris Livingston MIL 3.3 0.8 0.4
24 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 2.8 1.5 0.5
25 Anthony Gill WSH 2.6 1.4 0.5
26 Jared Butler WSH 2.6 1.2 1.0
27 Robin Lopez MIL 2.5 1.8 0.7
28 Lindell Wigginton MIL 2.5 1.6 1.7
29 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.7 0.9 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.