NBA games

DEN @ HOU

NBA Toyota Center (Houston) ·Final
86–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN1924261786
HOU29312421105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home HOU
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 42 38 19 8
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 39 20 5 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 37 14 7 1
Christian Braun 26 7 3 0
Justin Holiday 13 3 0 0
Aaron Gordon S 39 2 7 2
Reggie Jackson S 25 2 4 3
Collin Gillespie 3 0 0 0
Julian Strawther 6 0 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 4 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Green S 36 25 5 2
Alperen Sengun S 43 21 15 8
Fred VanVleet S 39 17 6 11
Jabari Smith Jr. S 38 16 15 1
Dillon Brooks S 30 8 1 2
Tari Eason 16 7 4 1
Aaron Holiday 15 7 0 0
Jae'Sean Tate 16 4 3 0
Jeff Green 8 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Nikola Jokic · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Nikola Jokic makes 17-foot jumper"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
14%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
13%
3 Alperen Sengun HOU
12%
4 Jalen Green HOU
11%
5 Dillon Brooks HOU
10%
6 Reggie Jackson DEN
9%
7 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
9%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Fred VanVleet HOU
7%
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
70%
Jumper
10%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 29.4 12.8 9.3
2 Alperen Sengun HOU 22.6 8.7 5.4
3 Jalen Green HOU 20.5 4.3 3.7
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 19.0 7.2 1.6
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.3 4.5 8.6
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.7 8.6 4.5
7 Reggie Jackson DEN 14.4 2.8 3.8
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.7 4.0 2.2
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 13.2 6.5 1.5
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.8 2.2 3.1
11 Christian Braun DEN 9.2 3.4 1.4
12 Tari Eason HOU 6.9 5.7 1.2
13 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 6.8 3.8 1.6
14 Aaron Holiday HOU 6.2 2.0 1.7
15 Jeff Green HOU 5.8 2.7 0.7
16 Nate Williams HOU 5.4 1.9 0.6
17 Julian Strawther DEN 5.0 1.5 0.8
18 Hunter Tyson DEN 3.8 2.0 0.7
19 Peyton Watson DEN 3.4 1.9 0.8
20 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.3 2.1 0.6
21 Jalen Pickett DEN 3.3 1.2 0.8
22 Justin Holiday DEN 3.2 1.1 0.6
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 2.9 2.0 2.1
24 Jock Landale HOU 2.7 2.2 0.7
25 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 2.5 1.5 0.6
26 Collin Gillespie DEN 2.4 0.8 0.8
27 Braxton Key DEN 2.2 1.5 0.9
28 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.1 2.0 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.