NBA games

DET @ IND

NBA Gainbridge Fieldhouse ·Final
113–136
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET26373317113
IND33283639136

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (IND) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home IND
14% 86%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 38 31 3 5
Jaden Ivey S 32 25 2 3
Jalen Duren 29 13 13 4
Isaiah Stewart S 27 10 6 1
Ausar Thompson S 30 8 6 3
Isaiah Livers 26 8 2 0
Killian Hayes 17 6 1 3
Marvin Bagley III S 14 6 6 2
Alec Burks 14 6 2 1
Stanley Umude 8 0 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 32 26 2 10
Myles Turner S 27 23 10 2
Buddy Hield S 28 18 4 0
Obi Toppin S 24 15 3 2
Bennedict Mathurin 31 15 2 0
Andrew Nembhard 20 13 3 4
Bruce Brown S 37 10 4 5
Jalen Smith 21 8 6 0
Isaiah Jackson 19 8 6 1
Ben Sheppard 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Myles Turner · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Myles Turner makes 8-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
11%
2 Myles Turner IND
11%
3 Jalen Duren DET
10%
4 Marvin Bagley III DET
9%
5 Ausar Thompson DET
9%
6 Obi Toppin IND
8%
7 Bruce Brown IND
7%
8 Jaden Ivey DET
7%
9 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
10 Tyrese Haliburton IND
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
31%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyrese Haliburton IND 27.7 3.9 11.9
2 Cade Cunningham DET 25.1 4.2 7.9
3 Myles Turner IND 18.3 6.7 1.8
4 Buddy Hield IND 15.5 3.5 2.5
5 Ausar Thompson DET 14.2 10.4 2.9
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.8 4.4 2.7
7 Jalen Duren DET 13.2 9.9 2.5
8 Bruce Brown IND 13.1 4.4 3.3
9 Obi Toppin IND 13.0 3.3 1.9
10 Jaden Ivey DET 12.9 3.2 3.0
11 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.5 6.6 1.6
12 Alec Burks DET 11.2 3.1 2.1
13 Killian Hayes DET 10.6 3.1 4.2
14 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.1 5.3 1.2
15 Marcus Sasser DET 9.8 2.4 2.7
16 Kevin Knox II DET 9.7 4.1 1.0
17 Jalen Smith IND 9.1 4.7 1.2
18 T.J. McConnell IND 6.9 2.5 3.5
19 Andrew Nembhard IND 6.2 1.4 3.1
20 Ben Sheppard IND 6.2 1.7 1.5
21 Jordan Nwora IND 5.8 2.2 1.2
22 Jarace Walker IND 5.1 3.0 1.4
23 Stanley Umude DET 4.9 1.9 0.6
24 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.4 4.0 0.8
25 James Wiseman DET 3.7 2.8 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.