NBA games

CHI @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
108–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHI22262931108
TOR36263128121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (CHI) games this season
CHI away
home TOR
43% 57%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 38 36 4 3
DeMar DeRozan S 39 19 3 4
Coby White S 34 14 3 3
Patrick Williams 22 12 5 1
Nikola Vucevic S 36 9 8 5
Alex Caruso S 18 7 2 1
Torrey Craig 19 5 5 1
Julian Phillips 4 2 0 0
Andre Drummond 6 2 5 0
Ayo Dosunmu 13 2 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
OG Anunoby S 34 26 6 3
Pascal Siakam S 37 18 3 8
Dennis Schroder S 34 17 0 5
Gary Trent Jr. 21 16 1 2
Jakob Poeltl S 31 15 10 3
Scottie Barnes S 33 13 10 6
Precious Achiuwa 18 8 7 4
Chris Boucher 10 4 1 0
Gradey Dick 9 2 1 0
Malachi Flynn 14 2 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
OG Anunoby · Layup (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"O.G. Anunoby makes layup (Jakob Poeltl assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
16%
2 Dennis Schroder TOR
10%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
10%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 Zach LaVine CHI
9%
6 DeMar DeRozan CHI
9%
7 OG Anunoby TOR
9%
8 Jakob Poeltl TOR
9%
9 Coby White CHI
7%
10 Patrick Williams CHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
29%
Layup
40%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam TOR 23.5 7.5 6.2
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI 22.3 3.7 5.1
3 Zach LaVine CHI 21.7 5.4 5.1
4 Scottie Barnes TOR 20.4 8.5 6.2
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 20.2 9.0 3.8
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 19.6 3.7 6.2
7 OG Anunoby TOR 15.2 4.1 2.8
8 Coby White CHI 15.1 3.2 5.0
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.5 8.4 2.9
10 Alex Caruso CHI 11.3 3.3 2.1
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.3 2.1 1.5
12 Precious Achiuwa TOR 7.9 6.1 2.2
13 Malachi Flynn TOR 7.9 2.8 2.4
14 Patrick Williams CHI 7.8 4.1 1.4
15 Chris Boucher TOR 6.7 4.3 0.8
16 Torrey Craig CHI 6.2 4.6 1.4
17 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 6.2 1.8 1.4
18 Andre Drummond CHI 5.8 6.9 0.9
19 Jevon Carter CHI 5.6 1.3 1.2
20 Gradey Dick TOR 4.2 1.3 1.4
21 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 4.2 2.8 0.7
22 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.0 1.1 0.7
23 Terry Taylor CHI 2.9 2.1 0.8
24 Julian Phillips CHI 2.7 1.2 0.5
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.5 0.9 0.6
26 Thaddeus Young TOR 2.3 1.6 0.7
27 Dalen Terry CHI 2.2 1.3 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.