NBA games

MIA @ NY

NBA Madison Square Garden ·Final
98–100
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA2822371198
NY25262029100

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NY) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home NY
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 37 23 2 3
Bam Adebayo S 35 21 12 2
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 35 15 5 4
Josh Richardson S 34 15 2 2
Kyle Lowry S 33 10 8 2
Kevin Love 18 7 6 1
Haywood Highsmith S 24 5 3 3
Caleb Martin 18 2 3 1
Cole Swider 6 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 34 24 3 3
Immanuel Quickley 26 20 4 2
RJ Barrett S 34 18 7 1
Julius Randle S 35 13 8 7
Josh Hart 26 10 8 4
Donte DiVincenzo 16 5 4 1
Mitchell Robinson S 20 5 7 0
Quentin Grimes S 21 3 0 2
Isaiah Hartenstein 28 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julius Randle · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:19 Q1
"Julius Randle makes 25-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Julius Randle NY
18%
2 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
3 Jalen Brunson NY
11%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
9%
5 Mitchell Robinson NY
9%
6 RJ Barrett NY
9%
7 Thomas Bryant MIA
8%
8 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
9 Kyle Lowry MIA
7%
10 Quentin Grimes NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
26%
Layup
25%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 24.6 3.5 5.4
2 Bam Adebayo MIA 23.7 11.3 4.9
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 22.9 4.7 4.5
4 Julius Randle NY 22.9 9.1 5.5
5 RJ Barrett NY 20.7 4.3 3.4
6 Immanuel Quickley NY 15.6 3.4 3.2
7 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 13.4 4.1 2.6
8 Josh Richardson MIA 10.2 2.6 2.6
9 Kyle Lowry MIA 10.0 3.3 4.4
10 Josh Hart NY 9.9 5.5 2.9
11 Donte DiVincenzo NY 9.1 3.1 1.8
12 Haywood Highsmith MIA 7.8 3.2 1.8
13 Mitchell Robinson NY 7.5 10.0 0.9
14 Jamal Cain MIA 7.1 5.1 0.6
15 Quentin Grimes NY 7.1 1.8 1.4
16 Evan Fournier NY 7.0 1.9 0.7
17 Kevin Love MIA 6.4 5.2 1.5
18 Cole Swider MIA 6.0 1.4 0.8
19 Caleb Martin MIA 5.8 2.5 1.3
20 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.1 3.5 0.8
21 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 5.0 4.2 0.9
22 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.7 0.8 0.6
23 Miles McBride NY 2.5 0.8 0.5
24 Jericho Sims NY 2.0 2.0 0.6
25 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.8 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.