NBA games

PHX @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
110–89
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX29331929110
MEM2722241689

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home MEM
81% 19%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Devin Booker S 33 40 5 4
Eric Gordon S 34 20 1 2
Jordan Goodwin 20 14 5 2
Grayson Allen S 37 14 2 3
Keita Bates-Diop S 24 6 4 1
Jusuf Nurkic S 33 6 11 6
Josh Okogie 28 5 7 3
Chimezie Metu 15 3 2 1
Nassir Little 16 2 4 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama S 36 21 5 0
Derrick Rose 22 17 2 1
David Roddy 27 14 4 0
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 29 13 7 2
Bismack Biyombo S 29 6 4 1
Jacob Gilyard S 24 6 0 5
Desmond Bane S 34 6 5 10
Vince Williams Jr. 14 3 5 1
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 2 2 0 0
John Konchar 18 1 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Devin Booker · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Devin Booker makes 13-foot running pullup jump shot (Grayson Allen assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
14%
2 Desmond Bane MEM
14%
3 Devin Booker PHX
12%
4 Santi Aldama MEM
12%
5 Bismack Biyombo MEM
11%
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
10%
7 Eric Gordon PHX
9%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
9 Jacob Gilyard MEM
8%
10 Keita Bates-Diop PHX
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
13%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
31%
Jumper
22%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 25.8 4.6 5.5
2 Devin Booker PHX 25.5 4.4 7.4
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.1 6.0 2.0
4 Santi Aldama MEM 14.0 5.2 2.1
5 Eric Gordon PHX 13.6 3.0 3.5
6 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 13.3 9.2 3.6
7 Grayson Allen PHX 12.5 4.6 2.8
8 Bismack Biyombo MEM 9.7 8.7 1.8
9 Ziaire Williams MEM 9.0 4.1 1.6
10 Derrick Rose MEM 7.9 1.7 3.0
11 David Roddy MEM 7.4 3.4 1.0
12 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.2 4.0 1.1
13 Josh Okogie PHX 6.2 3.0 1.1
14 Jacob Gilyard MEM 6.1 1.9 3.3
15 Saben Lee PHX 5.8 1.6 2.0
16 Nassir Little PHX 5.7 2.5 0.9
17 John Konchar MEM 5.2 4.2 1.7
18 Jordan Goodwin PHX 4.9 2.8 1.3
19 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.7 2.5 0.7
20 GG Jackson MEM 4.6 1.7 0.5
21 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.8 2.0 0.9
22 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 3.7 1.6 1.0
23 Shaquille Harrison MEM 2.8 2.7 0.6
24 Bol Bol PHX 2.3 1.1 0.4
25 Udoka Azubuike PHX 1.7 2.3 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.