NBA games

BOS @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
96–113
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS3026182296
ORL19292936113

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home ORL
47% 53%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jayson Tatum S 39 26 5 3
Jaylen Brown S 39 18 3 2
Derrick White S 37 16 5 4
Luke Kornet 25 12 6 1
Sam Hauser 25 10 2 0
Kristaps Porzingis S 22 9 4 2
Al Horford S 33 3 5 3
Payton Pritchard 13 2 1 2
Dalano Banton 1 0 0 0
Oshae Brissett 5 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Moritz Wagner 24 27 3 0
Paolo Banchero S 35 23 7 5
Franz Wagner S 35 17 8 6
Cole Anthony 29 16 3 6
Jalen Suggs S 28 10 4 1
Goga Bitadze S 19 6 5 3
Joe Ingles 21 5 5 2
Jonathan Isaac 16 5 7 0
Gary Harris 19 4 3 0
Anthony Black S 6 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaylen Brown · 3PT (3 pts) · 10:53 Q1
"Jaylen Brown makes 25-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jaylen Brown BOS
18%
2 Paolo Banchero ORL
13%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
12%
4 Franz Wagner ORL
12%
5 Goga Bitadze ORL
10%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
9%
7 Jalen Suggs ORL
9%
8 Derrick White BOS
8%
9 Anthony Black ORL
7%
10 Sam Hauser BOS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
12%
Jumper
35%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.0 8.3 4.9
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 22.2 4.3 4.3
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.2 7.0 4.4
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.7 6.6 2.2
5 Franz Wagner ORL 19.3 5.4 3.2
6 Cole Anthony ORL 14.1 4.4 3.6
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.8 3.6 3.8
8 Derrick White BOS 12.7 3.3 4.8
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.9 4.9 1.7
10 Sam Hauser BOS 9.4 2.9 1.2
11 Goga Bitadze ORL 8.5 7.9 1.5
12 Al Horford BOS 8.1 5.3 2.2
13 Gary Harris ORL 7.8 2.5 1.4
14 Payton Pritchard BOS 7.3 3.3 2.3
15 Anthony Black ORL 6.7 3.0 1.5
16 Joe Ingles ORL 6.3 2.8 3.6
17 Jonathan Isaac ORL 6.2 4.6 0.8
18 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.1 1.2 0.6
19 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.6 1.6 0.7
20 Luke Kornet BOS 3.5 2.9 0.6
21 Jett Howard ORL 3.4 0.9 0.4
22 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.3 2.1 0.4
23 Dalano Banton BOS 3.2 1.6 0.5
24 Admiral Schofield ORL 3.0 2.2 0.8
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.7 1.5 0.7
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.5 2.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.