NBA games

POR @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
107–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR21303125107
PHX34223826120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home PHX
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 36 26 4 6
Malcolm Brogdon S 25 19 1 5
Deandre Ayton S 31 18 8 4
Shaedon Sharpe S 32 10 3 0
Duop Reath 13 10 1 1
Jabari Walker 14 8 3 0
Toumani Camara S 39 7 4 0
Skylar Mays 21 6 2 3
Kris Murray 2 3 0 0
Rayan Rupert 2 0 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 37 31 4 9
Devin Booker S 33 28 3 6
Jusuf Nurkic S 29 18 12 0
Nassir Little 22 13 5 0
Eric Gordon S 36 10 2 4
Grayson Allen S 35 8 6 5
Drew Eubanks 13 7 2 0
Josh Okogie 13 2 3 1
Jordan Goodwin 5 2 0 0
Keita Bates-Diop 10 1 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deandre Ayton · Layup (2 pts) · 10:52 Q1
"Deandre Ayton makes layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
13%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
10%
3 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 Devin Booker PHX
10%
6 Malcolm Brogdon POR
8%
7 Grayson Allen PHX
8%
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
9 Toumani Camara POR
7%
10 Eric Gordon PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
50%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 31.1 6.6 6.3
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.1 4.3 7.8
3 Jerami Grant POR 23.2 4.1 2.5
4 Shaedon Sharpe POR 19.9 5.5 4.0
5 Malcolm Brogdon POR 16.3 3.8 4.6
6 Eric Gordon PHX 15.5 3.0 3.7
7 Grayson Allen PHX 14.2 4.5 3.0
8 Deandre Ayton POR 14.1 10.7 1.8
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.7 8.9 4.6
10 Skylar Mays POR 10.8 2.5 5.6
11 Drew Eubanks PHX 8.1 4.6 1.6
12 Toumani Camara POR 7.1 4.2 1.4
13 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.9 2.3 1.6
14 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.5 4.0 1.2
15 Duop Reath POR 6.4 2.6 1.2
16 Jabari Walker POR 6.1 4.0 0.9
17 Josh Okogie PHX 6.0 2.8 1.2
18 Saben Lee PHX 5.8 1.6 2.0
19 Nassir Little PHX 5.3 2.2 0.8
20 Jordan Goodwin PHX 5.2 3.1 1.7
21 Kris Murray POR 3.7 1.7 0.7
22 Moses Brown POR 3.6 3.3 0.5
23 Chimezie Metu PHX 3.5 1.8 0.6
24 Jamaree Bouyea POR 3.2 1.7 1.4
25 Rayan Rupert POR 2.6 1.0 0.6
26 Bol Bol PHX 2.2 1.1 0.4
27 Udoka Azubuike PHX 1.7 2.3 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.