NBA games

CLE @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
122–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
CLE2738232212122
PHI242926319119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (CLE) games this season
CLE away
home PHI
46% 54%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 43 32 5 8
Jarrett Allen S 35 26 13 3
Max Strus S 44 20 5 6
Evan Mobley S 38 18 12 3
Craig Porter Jr. 27 12 3 9
Georges Niang 26 12 7 0
Tristan Thompson 15 2 3 2
Dean Wade S 31 0 8 2
Sam Merrill 6 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 41 32 13 5
Tyrese Maxey S 47 30 4 6
Tobias Harris S 43 23 2 2
De'Anthony Melton S 41 13 6 3
Danuel House Jr. 12 7 0 0
Nicolas Batum S 27 5 4 2
Paul Reed 9 4 3 0
Robert Covington 14 3 7 1
Patrick Beverley 21 2 4 0
Jaden Springer 7 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Joel Embiid · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Joel Embiid makes 18-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
16%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
12%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
5 Darius Garland CLE
11%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
10%
7 Max Strus CLE
8%
8 Nicolas Batum PHI
6%
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI
6%
10 Dean Wade CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
64%
Jumper
15%
Layup
15%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 30.5 11.2 6.4
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.9 4.3 6.9
3 Tobias Harris PHI 20.9 7.0 3.3
4 Darius Garland CLE 20.4 3.4 6.3
5 Caris LeVert CLE 19.1 4.5 3.9
6 Evan Mobley CLE 17.7 10.4 3.6
7 Max Strus CLE 14.0 4.6 3.9
8 Jarrett Allen CLE 13.3 7.4 2.2
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI 12.9 3.9 3.3
10 Georges Niang CLE 8.9 3.6 1.4
11 Nicolas Batum PHI 5.8 3.0 1.3
12 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 5.6 2.4 1.8
13 Emoni Bates CLE 4.8 2.0 0.7
14 Robert Covington PHI 4.8 2.8 0.8
15 Paul Reed PHI 4.7 3.9 0.9
16 Jaden Springer PHI 4.5 2.3 1.0
17 Dean Wade CLE 4.4 3.3 0.8
18 Danuel House Jr. PHI 4.0 1.8 1.0
19 Patrick Beverley PHI 3.5 2.7 1.6
20 KJ Martin PHI 3.4 1.7 0.9
21 Sam Merrill CLE 3.3 1.3 0.8
22 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 3.3 1.2 0.6
23 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.1 2.3 0.6
24 Isaiah Mobley CLE 2.8 1.7 0.6
25 Mo Bamba PHI 2.7 2.0 0.5
26 Damian Jones CLE 2.4 1.3 0.6
27 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 2.4 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.