NBA games

IND @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
157–152
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND34394638157
ATL40462838152

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home ATL
31% 69%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 39 37 5 16
Buddy Hield S 31 24 2 1
Obi Toppin 34 21 1 6
Bennedict Mathurin 20 19 2 1
Aaron Nesmith S 25 17 1 1
Bruce Brown S 30 13 0 3
Myles Turner S 25 11 9 1
Jalen Smith 5 6 3 0
Ben Sheppard 5 5 1 1
T.J. McConnell 14 2 0 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 39 38 1 8
Dejounte Murray S 34 28 3 5
Bogdan Bogdanovic 26 26 2 0
Jalen Johnson S 33 17 7 6
Clint Capela S 19 14 5 1
Saddiq Bey 31 12 10 2
Onyeka Okongwu 22 7 6 4
De'Andre Hunter S 27 7 4 1
Wesley Matthews 9 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Buddy Hield · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Buddy Hield makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Haliburton assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Trae Young ATL
16%
2 Myles Turner IND
11%
3 Clint Capela ATL
10%
4 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
5 Jalen Johnson ATL
10%
6 Tyrese Haliburton IND
9%
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL
9%
8 Bennedict Mathurin IND
8%
9 Obi Toppin IND
8%
10 Bruce Brown IND
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
38%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Trae Young ATL 27.3 2.9 10.4
2 Tyrese Haliburton IND 25.4 4.1 11.8
3 Dejounte Murray ATL 25.3 4.5 5.6
4 Myles Turner IND 17.9 6.4 2.1
5 Jalen Johnson ATL 17.2 7.9 2.5
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.0 3.3 3.1
7 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.3 4.5 2.5
8 Saddiq Bey ATL 13.3 5.7 1.7
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL 12.5 3.6 1.7
10 Buddy Hield IND 11.8 3.5 2.6
11 Obi Toppin IND 11.4 3.6 1.2
12 Bruce Brown IND 11.3 4.7 2.7
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.0 7.2 1.4
14 Jalen Smith IND 9.9 5.6 1.3
15 Clint Capela ATL 9.5 9.2 1.0
16 Aaron Nesmith IND 8.9 2.9 1.4
17 T.J. McConnell IND 7.7 2.8 3.8
18 Ben Sheppard IND 6.6 2.0 1.5
19 Jarace Walker IND 6.1 3.4 1.7
20 Jordan Nwora IND 5.8 2.2 1.1
21 Isaiah Jackson IND 4.8 4.0 0.8
22 Trent Forrest ATL 4.0 1.3 2.1
23 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.5 1.0 0.4
24 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.3 2.2 0.7
25 Patty Mills ATL 2.8 1.2 0.9
26 Wesley Matthews ATL 2.7 1.6 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.