NBA games

TOR @ ORL

NBA Kia Center ·Final
107–126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
TOR23332625107
ORL30373326126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ORL) / 10 (TOR) games this season
TOR away
home ORL
34% 66%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 27 24 1 1
Pascal Siakam S 30 16 2 8
Scottie Barnes S 30 14 8 4
OG Anunoby S 30 11 1 4
Jakob Poeltl S 23 10 10 1
Malachi Flynn 19 6 3 1
Precious Achiuwa 15 5 6 4
Jalen McDaniels 7 5 1 1
Otto Porter Jr. 5 5 2 0
Gradey Dick 12 3 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paolo Banchero S 32 25 5 3
Jalen Suggs S 21 18 3 4
Franz Wagner S 31 17 4 2
Cole Anthony 29 15 5 10
Gary Harris 23 10 1 1
Moritz Wagner 15 10 4 2
Jonathan Isaac 12 9 3 0
Chuma Okeke 4 6 0 0
Joe Ingles 13 6 2 1
Goga Bitadze S 31 5 7 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Dennis Schroder · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:40 Q1
"Dennis Schroder makes 13-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Pascal Siakam TOR
12%
2 Franz Wagner ORL
11%
3 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
4 Dennis Schroder TOR
11%
5 Jakob Poeltl TOR
10%
6 OG Anunoby TOR
10%
7 Paolo Banchero ORL
9%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
9%
9 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
10 Anthony Black ORL
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
5%
Free Throw
48%
Jumper
12%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Pascal Siakam TOR 22.8 7.1 5.2
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 22.8 7.1 5.1
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 21.0 8.5 5.8
4 Franz Wagner ORL 19.1 5.7 3.6
5 Dennis Schroder TOR 17.4 3.4 6.2
6 OG Anunoby TOR 15.7 4.2 2.3
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 14.0 3.9 3.6
8 Cole Anthony ORL 13.8 4.3 3.7
9 Jakob Poeltl TOR 12.5 8.4 2.3
10 Moritz Wagner ORL 12.3 4.5 1.7
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 10.9 2.6 1.4
12 Precious Achiuwa TOR 8.3 5.9 1.9
13 Gary Harris ORL 8.0 2.4 1.5
14 Goga Bitadze ORL 6.7 5.9 1.1
15 Malachi Flynn TOR 6.6 2.3 2.5
16 Chris Boucher TOR 6.5 4.9 0.7
17 Anthony Black ORL 6.5 2.6 1.6
18 Joe Ingles ORL 6.3 2.7 3.1
19 Jonathan Isaac ORL 5.4 4.0 0.7
20 Gradey Dick TOR 4.8 1.5 1.2
21 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.2 1.5 0.7
22 Admiral Schofield ORL 3.4 2.5 1.0
23 Otto Porter Jr. TOR 3.3 2.1 0.3
24 Jalen McDaniels TOR 2.8 1.2 0.6
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.8 1.5 0.8
26 Garrett Temple TOR 1.9 0.6 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.