NBA games

HOU @ LAC

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
100–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
HOU23272723100
LAC29193127106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAC) / 10 (HOU) games this season
HOU away
home LAC
49% 51%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Alperen Sengun S 34 23 8 4
Jalen Green S 33 20 4 5
Fred VanVleet S 41 19 8 10
Tari Eason 20 12 6 0
Jabari Smith Jr. S 33 9 7 0
Jae'Sean Tate 9 6 4 0
Aaron Holiday 18 5 1 2
Dillon Brooks S 31 4 4 1
Jock Landale 7 2 3 0
Jeff Green 15 0 2 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 37 26 8 2
James Harden S 34 24 9 7
Paul George S 40 23 8 3
Ivica Zubac S 35 12 7 2
Norman Powell 30 10 3 3
Russell Westbrook 17 8 3 2
Daniel Theis 10 2 3 0
Terance Mann S 21 1 6 3
P.J. Tucker 15 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Fred VanVleet · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Fred VanVleet makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Alperen Sengun HOU
14%
2 James Harden LAC
11%
3 Russell Westbrook LAC
11%
4 Paul George LAC
10%
5 Jalen Green HOU
10%
6 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
7 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
8 Fred VanVleet HOU
9%
9 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU
8%
10 Dillon Brooks HOU
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
8%
Dunk
10%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
25%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Paul George LAC 24.6 5.5 4.1
2 Kawhi Leonard LAC 21.7 4.9 3.9
3 Alperen Sengun HOU 20.3 9.1 5.7
4 Jalen Green HOU 18.8 4.5 2.9
5 Fred VanVleet HOU 18.4 3.7 6.9
6 James Harden LAC 17.0 4.4 4.2
7 Russell Westbrook LAC 15.9 7.0 5.6
8 Dillon Brooks HOU 13.0 3.8 2.0
9 Bones Hyland LAC 12.8 2.7 3.2
10 Jabari Smith Jr. HOU 12.0 6.5 1.5
11 Norman Powell LAC 11.9 2.5 1.7
12 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.3 8.2 1.0
13 Tari Eason HOU 6.7 5.7 1.1
14 Terance Mann LAC 6.1 3.4 1.7
15 Cam Whitmore HOU 5.6 1.7 0.5
16 Jeff Green HOU 5.3 2.8 0.6
17 Jae'Sean Tate HOU 5.3 3.0 1.0
18 Aaron Holiday HOU 4.3 1.6 1.4
19 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.7 3.2 0.8
20 Jock Landale HOU 3.3 2.1 0.8
21 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.1 2.8 0.3
22 Amir Coffey LAC 2.5 0.8 0.6
23 Jermaine Samuels Jr. HOU 2.1 1.2 0.4
24 Boban Marjanovic HOU 2.1 2.1 0.5
25 Nate Hinton HOU 2.0 1.0 0.3
26 Reggie Bullock Jr. HOU 1.3 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.