NBA games

LAL @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
107–95
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL30302225107
POR2327252095

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (POR) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home POR
61% 39%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 35 35 5 9
Anthony Davis S 35 16 14 2
D'Angelo Russell S 29 14 3 6
Christian Wood 20 10 10 0
Taurean Prince S 35 10 1 3
Cam Reddish S 31 8 2 1
Rui Hachimura 28 7 5 2
Austin Reaves 18 7 2 4
Maxwell Lewis 1 0 0 0
Max Christie 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 40 24 4 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 38 17 9 2
Deandre Ayton S 38 17 12 2
Skylar Mays S 26 15 5 8
Toumani Camara S 36 10 6 0
Jabari Walker 18 7 5 1
Matisse Thybulle 24 5 4 1
Duop Reath 10 0 2 0
Jamaree Bouyea 1 0 0 0
Justin Minaya 5 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Taurean Prince · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:41 Q1
"Taurean Prince makes 7-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 Jerami Grant POR
13%
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR
11%
4 LeBron James LAL
11%
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
6 Deandre Ayton POR
10%
7 Toumani Camara POR
8%
8 Skylar Mays POR
8%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
40%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 27.4 9.2 6.8
2 Jerami Grant POR 23.7 4.7 2.6
3 Anthony Davis LAL 22.0 12.1 3.6
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 22.0 4.0 6.6
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.6 5.4 4.1
6 Austin Reaves LAL 16.0 5.3 5.3
7 Deandre Ayton POR 13.4 11.0 1.8
8 Rui Hachimura LAL 10.3 3.4 1.3
9 Taurean Prince LAL 9.8 2.5 1.3
10 Cam Reddish LAL 9.2 3.0 1.5
11 Skylar Mays POR 8.1 2.1 4.5
12 Duop Reath POR 7.6 3.0 1.5
13 Christian Wood LAL 7.3 5.7 1.3
14 Toumani Camara POR 7.2 4.4 1.7
15 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.8 2.3 1.3
16 Jabari Walker POR 6.1 4.1 0.8
17 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.6 3.6 3.8
18 Max Christie LAL 5.1 2.7 1.0
19 Jamaree Bouyea POR 4.2 2.4 1.1
20 Kris Murray POR 3.6 2.2 0.9
21 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.4 1.3 1.0
22 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.3 2.1 0.7
23 Moses Brown POR 2.9 3.4 0.3
24 Justin Minaya POR 2.6 1.9 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.