NBA games

PHX @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
131–128
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHX41342729131
UTAH38372429128

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (PHX) games this season
PHX away
home UTAH
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 33 38 9 9
Devin Booker S 32 24 4 15
Jusuf Nurkic S 23 15 7 4
Eric Gordon S 33 14 2 1
Drew Eubanks 21 11 4 0
Grayson Allen S 30 10 1 1
Keita Bates-Diop 20 7 3 0
Nassir Little 11 5 1 1
Jordan Goodwin 14 3 2 4
Yuta Watanabe 10 3 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson S 36 37 3 5
Lauri Markkanen S 40 21 2 0
John Collins S 35 15 14 1
Keyonte George S 29 15 3 6
Talen Horton-Tucker 19 9 3 4
Ochai Agbaji S 25 8 5 0
Simone Fontecchio 15 8 1 0
Collin Sexton 20 8 4 4
Kelly Olynyk 20 7 4 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kevin Durant · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:46 Q1
"Kevin Durant makes 22-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
12%
2 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
12%
3 Devin Booker PHX
11%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
11%
5 Eric Gordon PHX
11%
6 Kevin Durant PHX
9%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
9%
8 Grayson Allen PHX
9%
9 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
8%
10 Keyonte George UTAH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
34%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
6%
Jumper
24%
Layup
29%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 30.9 6.7 5.6
2 Devin Booker PHX 26.0 4.4 7.1
3 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.8 7.9 2.1
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 20.3 3.9 5.3
5 John Collins UTAH 15.9 7.5 1.5
6 Eric Gordon PHX 14.6 2.8 3.2
7 Grayson Allen PHX 14.4 4.7 3.2
8 Collin Sexton UTAH 12.8 2.6 3.8
9 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 11.0 7.9 4.7
10 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 10.8 3.4 5.1
11 Keyonte George UTAH 9.3 2.6 5.0
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 8.9 5.5 3.5
13 Drew Eubanks PHX 8.3 5.1 1.8
14 Josh Okogie PHX 7.8 3.2 1.4
15 Jordan Goodwin PHX 6.8 3.6 1.8
16 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.4 3.6 1.4
17 Saben Lee PHX 6.2 1.6 2.1
18 Yuta Watanabe PHX 6.1 2.6 1.2
19 Nassir Little PHX 5.2 2.1 1.0
20 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 5.1 2.6 1.1
21 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 5.0 2.0 0.9
22 Kris Dunn UTAH 4.9 2.0 2.6
23 Chimezie Metu PHX 4.7 2.2 0.9
24 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.4 1.4 0.7
25 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 3.2 2.1 0.7
26 Bol Bol PHX 2.7 1.1 0.4
27 Taylor Hendricks UTAH 2.7 1.5 0.4
28 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.0 2.2 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.