NBA games

DEN @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
110–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DEN28253324110
NO36332620115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DEN) games this season
DEN away
home NO
63% 37%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 26 16 18
Christian Braun 30 25 9 3
Michael Porter Jr. S 33 18 11 0
Reggie Jackson S 33 14 2 3
Aaron Gordon S 39 14 8 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 35 8 1 8
Peyton Watson 11 3 3 1
Julian Strawther 9 2 0 1
Zeke Nnaji 4 0 0 0
Jalen Pickett 10 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zion Williamson S 33 26 4 6
Jonas Valanciunas S 34 22 8 3
Brandon Ingram S 38 21 3 8
Naji Marshall 18 12 5 1
Dyson Daniels S 33 10 8 7
Matt Ryan 19 9 0 0
Herbert Jones S 37 8 5 4
Jordan Hawkins 26 7 5 4
Cody Zeller 2 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Brandon Ingram · Layup (2 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Brandon Ingram makes 4-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
17%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
3 Zion Williamson NO
12%
4 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
5 Jonas Valanciunas NO
8%
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
7 Herbert Jones NO
8%
8 Dyson Daniels NO
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Reggie Jackson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
79%
Jumper
4%
Layup
12%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 31.1 13.9 10.1
2 Brandon Ingram NO 22.5 5.8 5.0
3 Zion Williamson NO 22.3 6.7 4.4
4 Aaron Gordon DEN 16.8 7.8 4.2
5 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.6 7.3 1.9
6 Jordan Hawkins NO 13.9 4.2 1.9
7 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.0 7.5 1.9
8 Reggie Jackson DEN 11.8 2.7 3.9
9 Herbert Jones NO 10.3 3.8 1.9
10 Dyson Daniels NO 10.2 4.5 3.3
11 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 9.9 2.6 2.1
12 Matt Ryan NO 8.9 2.5 1.4
13 Christian Braun DEN 7.5 4.0 1.9
14 Naji Marshall NO 6.6 2.6 1.9
15 Julian Strawther DEN 6.1 1.2 0.7
16 Peyton Watson DEN 5.8 2.7 1.0
17 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 5.3 3.1 1.3
18 Justin Holiday DEN 4.6 1.7 0.9
19 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.1 1.5 1.2
20 Collin Gillespie DEN 4.0 1.0 1.2
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.8 3.0 0.7
22 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.7 2.3 2.3
23 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 3.2 1.1 1.2
24 Braxton Key DEN 2.9 1.7 1.0
25 Cody Zeller NO 1.9 1.9 0.8

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.