NBA games

ORL @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
103–97
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL23252926103
CHI1617323297

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home CHI
52% 48%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 35 21 4 2
Jonathan Isaac 20 18 9 1
Gary Harris S 29 15 6 2
Paolo Banchero S 32 13 8 4
Cole Anthony 37 11 8 7
Moritz Wagner 23 10 4 3
Joe Ingles 26 8 1 5
Caleb Houstan 6 3 2 0
Goga Bitadze S 21 2 4 0
Anthony Black S 11 2 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 41 34 6 3
DeMar DeRozan S 36 23 4 3
Alex Caruso S 23 18 1 0
Nikola Vucevic S 30 10 10 6
Andre Drummond 18 5 6 0
Coby White S 30 4 1 4
Torrey Craig 26 3 1 0
Patrick Williams 13 0 2 1
Jevon Carter 10 0 1 1
Ayo Dosunmu 14 0 2 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Alex Caruso · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:14 Q1
"Alex Caruso makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 DeMar DeRozan CHI
16%
2 Zach LaVine CHI
11%
3 Paolo Banchero ORL
10%
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI
10%
5 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
7 Goga Bitadze ORL
7%
8 Coby White CHI
7%
9 Torrey Craig CHI
7%
10 Anthony Black ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
12%
Free Throw
23%
Jumper
22%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Zach LaVine CHI 23.7 4.8 3.7
2 Paolo Banchero ORL 21.9 7.3 5.6
3 DeMar DeRozan CHI 21.7 3.9 4.7
4 Nikola Vucevic CHI 19.8 10.4 3.2
5 Franz Wagner ORL 19.7 6.0 4.0
6 Cole Anthony ORL 13.9 4.0 3.1
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 13.5 4.4 3.6
8 Coby White CHI 12.3 2.9 3.8
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.7 4.9 1.6
10 Alex Caruso CHI 9.5 3.8 2.4
11 Goga Bitadze ORL 7.5 5.8 1.2
12 Gary Harris ORL 6.9 2.3 1.4
13 Patrick Williams CHI 6.9 3.8 1.3
14 Jevon Carter CHI 6.8 1.4 1.2
15 Anthony Black ORL 6.6 2.8 1.8
16 Torrey Craig CHI 6.2 5.1 1.5
17 Joe Ingles ORL 5.7 2.6 2.4
18 Ayo Dosunmu CHI 5.6 1.5 1.1
19 Andre Drummond CHI 5.5 6.1 0.9
20 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.9 4.0 0.7
21 Jett Howard ORL 4.1 1.1 0.7
22 Caleb Houstan ORL 4.0 1.4 0.6
23 Admiral Schofield ORL 3.1 2.4 0.9
24 Julian Phillips CHI 2.9 1.4 0.5
25 Chuma Okeke ORL 2.3 1.4 0.7
26 Terry Taylor CHI 2.1 1.7 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.