NBA games

SAC @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
129–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SAC29333334129
SA31313226120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (SAC) games this season
SAC away
home SA
69% 31%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
De'Aaron Fox S 41 43 8 7
Domantas Sabonis S 35 27 14 7
Malik Monk 26 20 4 8
Kevin Huerter S 25 9 1 2
Harrison Barnes S 26 7 2 1
Keegan Murray S 38 6 6 3
Chris Duarte 15 6 3 0
Sasha Vezenkov 17 5 4 0
JaVale McGee 8 4 0 1
Keon Ellis 10 2 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach Collins S 34 28 8 5
Victor Wembanyama S 30 27 9 0
Keldon Johnson S 36 21 9 7
Malaki Branham 28 10 0 5
Julian Champagnie S 25 9 2 3
Jeremy Sochan S 37 8 8 6
Doug McDermott 16 6 0 3
Sandro Mamukelashvili 12 6 3 3
Cedi Osman 15 3 2 1
Charles Bassey 2 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Julian Champagnie · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:37 Q1
"Julian Champagnie makes 24-foot three point jumper (Keldon Johnson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
15%
2 Victor Wembanyama SA
12%
3 Zach Collins SA
11%
4 De'Aaron Fox SAC
11%
5 Keldon Johnson SA
11%
6 Keegan Murray SAC
10%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
8 Kevin Huerter SAC
8%
9 Julian Champagnie SA
7%
10 Harrison Barnes SAC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
6%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
20%
Layup
47%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 De'Aaron Fox SAC 25.5 4.7 5.7
2 Domantas Sabonis SAC 22.2 12.4 7.8
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 20.3 10.3 3.1
4 Keldon Johnson SA 16.6 5.8 4.2
5 Zach Collins SA 16.0 6.4 3.9
6 Keegan Murray SAC 14.8 6.5 2.2
7 Kevin Huerter SAC 14.5 4.8 3.1
8 Malik Monk SAC 13.9 3.5 5.4
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.8 3.1 1.6
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.2 5.0 4.6
11 Malaki Branham SA 8.5 1.9 2.1
12 Davion Mitchell SAC 7.3 1.8 2.5
13 Doug McDermott SA 7.1 1.6 1.7
14 JaVale McGee SAC 7.0 4.2 0.9
15 Cedi Osman SA 6.8 2.1 1.3
16 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 6.2 2.4 0.7
17 Chris Duarte SAC 5.0 1.7 1.0
18 Keon Ellis SAC 5.0 2.6 1.0
19 Julian Champagnie SA 4.5 2.5 0.9
20 Devonte' Graham SA 4.4 1.7 1.6
21 Charles Bassey SA 4.0 3.6 0.8
22 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.0 1.7 0.7
23 Filip Petrusev SAC 3.0 2.0 0.8
24 Blake Wesley SA 2.6 1.2 1.6
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 2.4 1.0 0.4
26 Jalen Slawson SAC 1.7 1.3 0.5
27 Sidy Cissoko SA 1.2 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.