NBA games

BOS @ TOR

NBA Scotiabank Arena ·Final
108–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BOS26391924108
TOR32173224105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (TOR) / 10 (BOS) games this season
BOS away
home TOR
53% 47%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 36 23 3 4
Jayson Tatum S 37 17 7 2
Jrue Holiday S 35 14 8 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 35 14 12 5
Derrick White S 34 13 4 5
Al Horford 23 11 4 2
Sam Hauser 23 11 3 3
Payton Pritchard 17 5 3 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dennis Schroder S 35 23 7 6
Pascal Siakam S 29 23 6 5
Scottie Barnes S 32 14 3 6
Gary Trent Jr. S 31 14 2 1
Jakob Poeltl S 34 11 8 4
Chris Boucher 18 6 4 0
Malachi Flynn 19 5 1 5
Precious Achiuwa 24 5 9 1
Jalen McDaniels 7 4 0 0
Gradey Dick 10 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Pascal Siakam · Layup (2 pts) · 11:08 Q1
"Pascal Siakam makes alley oop layup (Jakob Poeltl assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Scottie Barnes TOR
11%
2 Jaylen Brown BOS
10%
3 Jayson Tatum BOS
9%
4 Pascal Siakam TOR
9%
5 Dennis Schroder TOR
8%
6 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
8%
7 Jrue Holiday BOS
8%
8 Derrick White BOS
7%
9 OG Anunoby TOR
7%
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
25%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
27%
Layup
22%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 26.6 8.3 4.4
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 23.0 5.1 3.6
3 Scottie Barnes TOR 22.2 9.9 5.8
4 Pascal Siakam TOR 20.8 7.1 5.0
5 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 19.3 6.1 2.1
6 Dennis Schroder TOR 15.3 3.2 6.9
7 Derrick White BOS 15.0 4.1 4.0
8 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.8 7.4 5.4
9 OG Anunoby TOR 14.4 4.0 2.2
10 Jakob Poeltl TOR 11.3 7.9 1.9
11 Gary Trent Jr. TOR 8.8 2.5 1.3
12 Sam Hauser BOS 8.3 3.3 0.9
13 Precious Achiuwa TOR 7.7 5.8 1.7
14 Al Horford BOS 6.9 5.7 2.0
15 Neemias Queta BOS 6.8 4.0 0.5
16 Chris Boucher TOR 6.3 4.6 0.8
17 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.2 3.0 3.2
18 Malachi Flynn TOR 5.9 2.0 2.1
19 Gradey Dick TOR 5.3 1.9 1.3
20 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 4.7 1.5 0.6
21 Dalano Banton BOS 4.6 2.2 0.8
22 Luke Kornet BOS 3.9 3.4 0.6
23 Lamar Stevens BOS 3.2 2.0 0.3
24 Jalen McDaniels TOR 3.0 1.8 0.8
25 Garrett Temple TOR 2.7 1.1 0.5
26 Oshae Brissett BOS 2.6 2.3 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.