NBA games

DET @ CLE

NBA Rocket Arena ·Final
100–108
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DET26192827100
CLE35242128108

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CLE) / 10 (DET) games this season
DET away
home CLE
26% 74%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Cade Cunningham S 34 20 5 8
Jaden Ivey 29 11 2 3
Isaiah Stewart S 31 11 10 2
Kevin Knox II S 31 11 10 1
Alec Burks 24 10 3 1
Stanley Umude 17 10 6 0
Ausar Thompson S 17 9 10 2
Marvin Bagley III 16 8 3 1
Marcus Sasser 15 6 0 0
Killian Hayes S 22 4 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Darius Garland S 34 28 3 3
Max Strus S 39 18 7 3
Evan Mobley S 35 18 10 5
Craig Porter Jr. 16 12 3 5
Jarrett Allen S 32 10 7 2
Caris LeVert 33 10 1 1
Georges Niang 27 9 7 2
Dean Wade S 22 3 1 0
Emoni Bates 1 0 0 0
Sam Merrill 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jarrett Allen · Layup (2 pts) · 11:44 Q1
"Jarrett Allen makes 1-foot layup (Evan Mobley assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
17%
2 Evan Mobley CLE
13%
3 Ausar Thompson DET
10%
4 Darius Garland CLE
10%
5 Jalen Duren DET
8%
6 Jarrett Allen CLE
8%
7 Marvin Bagley III DET
8%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
9 Killian Hayes DET
6%
10 Max Strus CLE
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
36%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cade Cunningham DET 22.1 4.1 8.1
2 Caris LeVert CLE 20.0 4.7 4.3
3 Darius Garland CLE 19.9 3.3 5.7
4 Evan Mobley CLE 19.7 11.0 3.5
5 Ausar Thompson DET 14.4 10.2 3.5
6 Max Strus CLE 14.2 4.8 4.0
7 Jarrett Allen CLE 12.9 7.8 1.8
8 Jalen Duren DET 12.5 9.7 2.4
9 Isaiah Stewart DET 12.4 6.3 1.7
10 Killian Hayes DET 11.9 3.6 4.6
11 Marvin Bagley III DET 10.7 5.0 1.3
12 Alec Burks DET 10.7 3.0 2.3
13 Jaden Ivey DET 10.5 3.1 2.7
14 Kevin Knox II DET 9.8 3.1 1.2
15 Marcus Sasser DET 9.4 2.9 2.9
16 Georges Niang CLE 8.0 3.5 1.3
17 Emoni Bates CLE 5.7 2.2 0.6
18 Dean Wade CLE 5.2 3.3 1.0
19 James Wiseman DET 5.0 3.5 0.7
20 Craig Porter Jr. CLE 4.6 1.9 1.4
21 Sam Merrill CLE 3.5 1.3 0.8
22 Tristan Thompson CLE 3.1 2.6 0.6
23 Damian Jones CLE 3.0 2.0 0.5
24 Stanley Umude DET 2.6 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.