NBA games

PHI @ ATL

NBA State Farm Arena ·Final
126–116
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI30273732126
ATL24323129116

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (ATL) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home ATL
68% 32%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 37 32 7 8
Tobias Harris S 38 29 10 4
Tyrese Maxey S 40 19 4 8
De'Anthony Melton S 36 14 4 5
Danuel House Jr. 18 14 3 1
Jaden Springer 22 8 3 2
Robert Covington S 20 6 7 3
Patrick Beverley 14 2 2 1
Paul Reed 11 2 2 0
Marcus Morris Sr. 2 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Trae Young S 37 22 2 13
Jalen Johnson S 36 18 10 2
Saddiq Bey 31 17 7 1
Clint Capela S 29 17 11 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic 24 13 2 3
Dejounte Murray S 35 13 1 3
De'Andre Hunter S 18 9 1 0
Onyeka Okongwu 19 5 5 0
Wesley Matthews 10 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Tobias Harris · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:32 Q1
"Tobias Harris makes 10-foot pullup jump shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
23%
2 Trae Young ATL
11%
3 Tobias Harris PHI
10%
4 Dejounte Murray ATL
9%
5 De'Andre Hunter ATL
9%
6 Clint Capela ATL
8%
7 Tyrese Maxey PHI
8%
8 Jalen Johnson ATL
7%
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI
7%
10 Robert Covington PHI
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
3%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
50%
Jumper
13%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 31.4 11.4 6.4
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 26.0 4.9 6.3
3 Trae Young ATL 25.0 3.1 11.6
4 Dejounte Murray ATL 24.1 4.9 6.3
5 Tobias Harris PHI 21.4 6.5 3.3
6 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 16.0 3.2 3.1
7 Jalen Johnson ATL 15.6 7.5 2.6
8 De'Andre Hunter ATL 13.4 3.9 2.2
9 Saddiq Bey ATL 12.1 5.1 1.7
10 De'Anthony Melton PHI 12.0 3.7 3.9
11 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 9.7 6.8 1.5
12 Clint Capela ATL 9.4 9.1 1.2
13 Robert Covington PHI 5.1 2.5 0.9
14 Paul Reed PHI 5.1 4.4 1.0
15 Jaden Springer PHI 4.9 2.3 0.9
16 AJ Griffin ATL 4.4 1.3 0.7
17 Trent Forrest ATL 4.3 1.4 2.4
18 Patrick Beverley PHI 4.1 3.2 1.6
19 Garrison Mathews ATL 4.0 1.3 0.6
20 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 3.6 1.4 0.7
21 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.5 2.1 0.9
22 KJ Martin PHI 3.4 1.9 0.9
23 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.1 1.5 0.8
24 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.1 2.2 0.8
25 Patty Mills ATL 2.7 1.1 1.0
26 Marcus Morris Sr. PHI 2.5 1.5 0.6
27 Mo Bamba PHI 1.5 1.5 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.