NBA games

NY @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
120–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
NY35302431120
WSH2529301599

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (NY) games this season
NY away
home WSH
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jalen Brunson S 34 32 7 7
Immanuel Quickley 33 27 6 4
Julius Randle S 35 22 7 8
Donte DiVincenzo S 25 14 4 1
Josh Hart S 32 9 5 2
Mitchell Robinson S 27 6 8 1
Miles McBride 14 5 1 0
Isaiah Hartenstein 20 3 8 2
Evan Fournier 16 2 1 1
Jericho Sims 1 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 32 19 4 5
Deni Avdija S 32 18 4 2
Tyus Jones S 30 11 3 5
Daniel Gafford S 28 10 7 0
Jordan Poole S 29 8 1 4
Corey Kispert 26 8 3 1
Danilo Gallinari 17 7 6 1
Bilal Coulibaly 31 6 3 4
Landry Shamet 7 5 0 2
Eugene Omoruyi 2 5 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mitchell Robinson · Dunk (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Mitchell Robinson makes dunk"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH
14%
2 RJ Barrett NY
13%
3 Julius Randle NY
12%
4 Jalen Brunson NY
12%
5 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
9%
7 Mitchell Robinson NY
9%
8 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
9 Deni Avdija WSH
7%
10 Josh Hart NY
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
18%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
25%
Jumper
36%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jalen Brunson NY 25.0 3.7 5.3
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.5 6.3 3.9
3 Julius Randle NY 22.7 10.5 5.8
4 RJ Barrett NY 21.9 4.1 3.5
5 Jordan Poole WSH 17.4 3.4 3.9
6 Immanuel Quickley NY 15.2 3.7 3.9
7 Deni Avdija WSH 13.7 5.5 3.7
8 Tyus Jones WSH 10.1 2.7 4.3
9 Corey Kispert WSH 9.8 2.5 1.9
10 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 9.6 3.9 1.8
11 Josh Hart NY 9.4 6.5 3.0
12 Daniel Gafford WSH 9.2 7.2 1.3
13 Mitchell Robinson NY 8.9 11.5 1.0
14 Donte DiVincenzo NY 8.3 3.3 1.9
15 Evan Fournier NY 8.2 2.1 0.8
16 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.7 2.6 1.4
17 Isaiah Hartenstein NY 6.5 4.3 1.1
18 Landry Shamet WSH 6.1 1.6 1.1
19 Johnny Davis WSH 5.8 2.4 0.8
20 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 4.9 1.9 0.7
21 Mike Muscala WSH 4.2 2.5 0.8
22 Miles McBride NY 4.1 1.5 1.3
23 Anthony Gill WSH 3.0 1.7 0.7
24 DaQuan Jeffries NY 2.8 0.7 0.6
25 Jericho Sims NY 2.3 2.9 0.7
26 Jared Butler WSH 2.3 1.1 1.2
27 Ryan Arcidiacono NY 1.9 1.1 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.