NBA games

MIL @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
130–99
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIL28313338130
CHA3720241899

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIL) games this season
MIL away
home CHA
54% 46%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Damian Lillard S 31 27 5 5
Malik Beasley S 30 20 2 3
Giannis Antetokounmpo S 28 16 8 9
Brook Lopez S 33 15 7 2
Bobby Portis 30 13 7 1
Khris Middleton S 22 12 6 1
Pat Connaughton 31 11 7 3
Andre Jackson Jr. 8 6 1 2
AJ Green 3 6 1 0
Cameron Payne 21 2 3 6
Player MIN PTS REB AST
LaMelo Ball S 35 37 5 5
Miles Bridges 33 17 5 4
Mark Williams S 32 11 16 2
Brandon Miller S 27 10 4 3
Ish Smith 23 8 2 2
Bryce McGowens 10 5 0 1
P.J. Washington S 26 3 3 1
Nick Smith Jr. 9 2 2 0
Gordon Hayward S 29 2 4 0
JT Thor 6 2 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Malik Beasley · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:43 Q1
"Malik Beasley makes 24-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Damian Lillard MIL
12%
2 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL
10%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
10%
4 Mark Williams CHA
9%
5 P.J. Washington CHA
8%
6 Gordon Hayward CHA
8%
7 Brook Lopez MIL
7%
8 Theo Maledon CHA
6%
9 Brandon Miller CHA
6%
10 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
24%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
13%
Jumper
39%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL 29.5 10.5 4.5
2 Damian Lillard MIL 24.8 4.2 5.9
3 LaMelo Ball CHA 24.7 5.7 9.3
4 P.J. Washington CHA 18.2 5.7 2.5
5 Gordon Hayward CHA 17.7 5.2 5.1
6 Mark Williams CHA 14.5 9.4 1.6
7 Bobby Portis MIL 13.2 6.1 1.8
8 Brandon Miller CHA 12.8 4.5 1.9
9 Malik Beasley MIL 10.6 3.5 1.4
10 Khris Middleton MIL 10.0 3.4 3.9
11 Brook Lopez MIL 10.0 5.1 1.4
12 Nick Richards CHA 8.8 6.7 1.0
13 Cameron Payne MIL 7.1 1.6 2.2
14 Pat Connaughton MIL 6.7 3.2 1.9
15 Theo Maledon CHA 6.3 2.4 2.3
16 JT Thor CHA 5.5 3.5 1.1
17 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 4.8 1.7 1.0
18 TyTy Washington Jr. MIL 4.7 1.7 1.9
19 AJ Green MIL 4.6 1.5 1.1
20 Thanasis Antetokounmpo MIL 4.5 2.3 0.7
21 Bryce McGowens CHA 4.3 1.7 0.9
22 Andre Jackson Jr. MIL 4.0 2.3 1.0
23 Robin Lopez MIL 3.6 2.1 1.0
24 Lindell Wigginton MIL 3.6 2.2 2.0
25 Marques Bolden MIL 3.2 3.5 0.7
26 Ish Smith CHA 3.0 1.9 1.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.