NBA games

MEM @ LAL

NBA crypto.com Arena ·Final
107–134
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MEM26253521107
LAL37373327134

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (LAL) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home LAL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Santi Aldama 25 24 5 4
David Roddy 31 17 3 3
Xavier Tillman 22 15 2 2
Desmond Bane S 27 15 1 5
Ziaire Williams 26 10 1 0
Jacob Gilyard S 21 9 3 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 22 8 2 2
John Konchar 18 6 3 6
Marcus Smart S 8 3 1 1
Vince Williams Jr. 5 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
D'Angelo Russell S 27 24 3 5
Rui Hachimura 24 23 3 0
Anthony Davis S 27 19 11 5
LeBron James S 23 16 9 6
Austin Reaves 29 16 12 7
Jaxson Hayes 21 11 1 1
Cam Reddish S 25 10 1 2
Taurean Prince S 29 8 3 1
Max Christie 9 5 1 1
Christian Wood 22 2 10 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jacob Gilyard · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Jacob Gilyard makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
15%
2 Anthony Davis LAL
11%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
11%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
9%
5 LeBron James LAL
9%
6 Bismack Biyombo MEM
9%
7 Marcus Smart MEM
8%
8 Taurean Prince LAL
8%
9 Rui Hachimura LAL
7%
10 Cam Reddish LAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
49%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
9%
Layup
30%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 LeBron James LAL 25.5 8.4 5.6
2 Desmond Bane MEM 24.8 5.1 5.1
3 Anthony Davis LAL 23.3 11.1 3.5
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.4 6.8 2.8
5 D'Angelo Russell LAL 20.1 4.1 6.8
6 Austin Reaves LAL 15.4 4.1 4.5
7 Marcus Smart MEM 15.2 3.5 5.6
8 Bismack Biyombo MEM 11.9 11.5 1.8
9 Ziaire Williams MEM 10.2 5.4 1.5
10 Santi Aldama MEM 10.2 4.9 1.6
11 Taurean Prince LAL 10.0 2.4 1.3
12 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.6 3.7 1.4
13 Xavier Tillman MEM 8.3 6.2 1.7
14 David Roddy MEM 8.3 3.9 1.3
15 Christian Wood LAL 8.0 5.7 1.4
16 Luke Kennard MEM 7.9 2.7 1.9
17 Cam Reddish LAL 7.6 3.2 1.3
18 Max Christie LAL 6.3 3.1 1.3
19 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 5.8 3.7 3.8
20 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.5 2.0 4.3
21 John Konchar MEM 5.0 3.8 1.2
22 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 4.8 2.3 1.2
23 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 3.9 2.4 0.9
24 Jaxson Hayes LAL 3.3 2.5 0.9
25 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.0 0.8 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.