NBA games

MIN @ GS

NBA Chase Center ·Final
104–101
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN22322228104
GS30292418101

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (GS) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home GS
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 42 33 11 2
Anthony Edwards S 36 20 4 4
Mike Conley S 31 13 2 8
Naz Reid 16 10 2 0
Rudy Gobert S 35 9 13 2
Kyle Anderson 27 8 4 3
Shake Milton 15 6 4 3
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 25 5 0 1
Troy Brown Jr. 10 0 2 1
Jaden McDaniels S 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Brandin Podziemski 39 23 7 5
Dario Saric S 32 21 4 4
Chris Paul S 36 15 5 4
Moses Moody 14 11 2 2
Andrew Wiggins S 28 9 7 0
Gary Payton II 16 7 3 2
Cory Joseph 13 6 0 4
Jonathan Kuminga 16 5 2 1
Kevon Looney 32 2 12 3
Trayce Jackson-Davis 12 2 2 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Rudy Gobert · Free Throw (1 pts) · 10:17 Q1
"Rudy Gobert makes free throw flagrant 1 of 2"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
18%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
13%
3 Rudy Gobert MIN
12%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
5 Klay Thompson GS
10%
6 Draymond Green GS
10%
7 Jaden McDaniels MIN
9%
8 Kevon Looney GS
9%
9 Mike Conley MIN
8%
10 Kyle Anderson MIN
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
12%
Dunk
3%
Free Throw
36%
Jumper
28%
Layup
21%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 28.1 6.0 5.5
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 19.2 8.6 2.8
3 Klay Thompson GS 15.4 4.1 2.2
4 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.3 11.2 1.4
5 Naz Reid MIN 11.8 4.7 1.5
6 Jonathan Kuminga GS 11.1 3.2 1.1
7 Draymond Green GS 11.0 5.4 5.7
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN 10.8 3.3 1.5
9 Andrew Wiggins GS 10.7 4.0 1.4
10 Mike Conley MIN 10.3 2.9 4.2
11 Chris Paul GS 9.1 3.3 6.0
12 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.1 3.8 3.9
13 Dario Saric GS 8.0 5.9 1.7
14 Kevon Looney GS 6.6 7.7 2.6
15 Brandin Podziemski GS 6.2 3.8 2.9
16 Gary Payton II GS 5.9 3.0 1.1
17 Moses Moody GS 5.8 2.7 1.1
18 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.7 2.5 2.1
19 Shake Milton MIN 5.2 1.7 1.4
20 Trayce Jackson-Davis GS 5.0 3.7 0.6
21 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 4.4 2.0 0.7
22 Josh Minott MIN 3.2 1.5 0.9
23 Daishen Nix MIN 3.0 0.8 1.2
24 Cory Joseph GS 2.5 1.0 1.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.