NBA games

LAC @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
108–111
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC26263224108
DEN28322427111

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DEN
35% 65%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Paul George S 40 35 7 3
James Harden S 35 21 2 4
Kawhi Leonard S 38 15 2 2
Norman Powell 26 14 1 1
Ivica Zubac S 26 9 13 3
Russell Westbrook S 24 8 6 3
P.J. Tucker 21 6 5 0
Terance Mann 28 0 6 5
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 32 16 9
Aaron Gordon S 39 20 5 5
Reggie Jackson S 30 18 3 4
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 10 5 0
Christian Braun 20 10 1 1
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 39 9 1 4
Jalen Pickett 17 5 2 2
Peyton Watson 11 4 0 0
Zeke Nnaji 12 3 3 0
Justin Holiday 2 0 0 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Paul George · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:15 Q1
"Paul George makes 3-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Nikola Jokic DEN
16%
2 Aaron Gordon DEN
11%
3 Russell Westbrook LAC
10%
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC
10%
5 Paul George LAC
10%
6 James Harden LAC
10%
7 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
8 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
8%
9 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN
7%
10 Reggie Jackson DEN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
5%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
79%
Jumper
4%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Nikola Jokic DEN 30.6 13.3 9.3
2 Paul George LAC 23.7 5.3 3.9
3 Kawhi Leonard LAC 20.0 4.9 3.8
4 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 16.7 7.7 2.1
5 Russell Westbrook LAC 15.7 6.8 5.7
6 Aaron Gordon DEN 15.2 7.6 3.9
7 James Harden LAC 14.7 4.9 4.2
8 Bones Hyland LAC 13.1 2.8 3.4
9 Norman Powell LAC 11.5 2.7 1.7
10 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 10.5 2.5 1.9
11 Reggie Jackson DEN 10.4 2.4 3.2
12 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.0 7.9 0.9
13 Christian Braun DEN 7.0 4.1 1.9
14 Julian Strawther DEN 6.7 1.5 0.8
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.6 3.4 1.5
16 Peyton Watson DEN 5.2 2.5 0.9
17 Collin Gillespie DEN 4.7 1.3 1.4
18 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.9 3.3 0.5
19 Kobe Brown LAC 3.7 1.9 0.5
20 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.6 3.2 0.8
21 Zeke Nnaji DEN 3.5 2.6 0.6
22 Justin Holiday DEN 3.3 1.3 0.7
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 3.2 2.1 2.2
24 Amir Coffey LAC 2.8 1.0 0.6
25 Braxton Key DEN 2.8 1.7 0.9
26 Jalen Pickett DEN 2.6 0.7 0.7

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.