NBA games

POR @ UTAH

NBA Delta Center ·Final
99–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
POR2830281399
UTAH36312820115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (UTAH) / 10 (POR) games this season
POR away
home UTAH
27% 73%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 27 26 2 1
Deandre Ayton S 34 22 10 3
Shaedon Sharpe S 41 17 8 7
Jabari Walker 21 12 8 0
Toumani Camara S 26 9 5 1
Skylar Mays S 31 6 5 10
Matisse Thybulle 22 6 2 1
Rayan Rupert 3 1 0 0
Ish Wainright 3 0 0 0
Jamaree Bouyea 17 0 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson S 33 30 1 3
Lauri Markkanen S 31 21 9 0
Keyonte George S 26 15 4 7
John Collins S 32 14 10 2
Collin Sexton 28 13 4 7
Kelly Olynyk 24 12 12 3
Ochai Agbaji S 26 6 8 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 21 4 3 3
Simone Fontecchio 16 0 1 0
Luka Samanic 1 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Toumani Camara · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"Toumani Camara makes 24-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 John Collins UTAH
13%
2 Jerami Grant POR
12%
3 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
12%
4 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
5 Shaedon Sharpe POR
12%
6 Deandre Ayton POR
11%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
8%
8 Skylar Mays POR
8%
9 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
8%
10 Matisse Thybulle POR
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
31%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
24%
Layup
28%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jerami Grant POR 23.4 4.7 2.4
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.4 8.4 2.1
3 Shaedon Sharpe POR 22.0 4.8 3.8
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 19.1 4.3 5.5
5 John Collins UTAH 15.9 7.7 1.5
6 Deandre Ayton POR 12.4 11.5 1.7
7 Collin Sexton UTAH 11.8 2.4 2.8
8 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 10.8 3.4 5.1
9 Skylar Mays POR 8.5 1.8 4.0
10 Keyonte George UTAH 8.1 2.4 4.5
11 Duop Reath POR 7.8 3.6 1.5
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 7.5 5.0 3.5
13 Toumani Camara POR 6.5 4.2 1.6
14 Matisse Thybulle POR 6.4 2.2 1.3
15 Jabari Walker POR 6.0 3.9 0.8
16 Kris Dunn UTAH 4.6 2.1 2.4
17 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 4.5 2.1 0.9
18 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 4.1 1.8 0.7
19 Justin Minaya POR 3.9 2.4 1.5
20 Kris Murray POR 3.8 2.3 0.8
21 Moses Brown POR 3.1 3.5 0.4
22 Luka Samanic UTAH 2.6 1.1 0.5
23 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.4 2.3 0.4
24 Rayan Rupert POR 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.