NBA games

DAL @ NO

NBA Smoothie King Center ·Final
110–131
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL26283125110
NO33374417131

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (NO) / 10 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home NO
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tim Hardaway Jr. 21 17 0 1
Kyrie Irving S 26 17 2 6
Luka Doncic S 26 16 2 2
Grant Williams S 24 10 1 0
Dante Exum 12 9 1 2
Jaden Hardy 18 9 2 3
Derrick Jones Jr. S 18 7 3 2
Richaun Holmes 12 6 7 0
Olivier-Maxence Prosper 9 6 3 0
Dereck Lively II S 21 4 9 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Hawkins 33 25 6 3
Brandon Ingram S 36 25 9 7
Zion Williamson S 27 19 7 5
Herbert Jones S 31 19 4 4
Naji Marshall 21 16 4 2
Dyson Daniels S 29 10 2 6
Matt Ryan 20 6 2 0
Jonas Valanciunas S 22 6 3 4
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl 13 3 2 2
Kira Lewis Jr. 2 2 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Luka Doncic · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:11 Q1
"Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dereck Lively II assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Luka Doncic DAL
23%
2 Brandon Ingram NO
13%
3 Zion Williamson NO
11%
4 Kyrie Irving DAL
9%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO
7%
7 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
8 Herbert Jones NO
6%
9 Dyson Daniels NO
6%
10 Grant Williams DAL
5%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
53%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
11%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.7 8.3 9.0
2 Zion Williamson NO 23.3 6.6 4.7
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 22.3 4.7 6.9
4 Brandon Ingram NO 21.6 6.0 5.4
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.8 4.3 2.1
6 Jonas Valanciunas NO 12.9 8.6 2.1
7 Jordan Hawkins NO 12.8 3.7 2.0
8 Grant Williams DAL 11.5 3.9 1.5
9 Dyson Daniels NO 10.5 4.9 3.2
10 Dereck Lively II DAL 10.0 7.2 1.4
11 Matt Ryan NO 9.9 2.7 1.7
12 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 9.7 3.4 1.5
13 Herbert Jones NO 9.6 3.7 1.5
14 Josh Green DAL 9.0 2.7 2.1
15 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.5 2.4 1.5
16 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl NO 6.5 3.8 1.5
17 Naji Marshall NO 6.4 2.2 2.0
18 Dwight Powell DAL 6.3 4.4 1.4
19 Dereon Seabron NO 4.8 2.0 1.3
20 Kira Lewis Jr. NO 4.7 1.6 1.8
21 Seth Curry DAL 4.1 1.6 0.8
22 Dante Exum DAL 4.1 2.3 1.3
23 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.8 2.0 0.6
24 Markieff Morris DAL 3.8 1.6 0.8
25 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.9 2.7 0.6
26 Cody Zeller NO 2.6 2.3 1.0

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.