NBA games

SA @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
87–123
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
SA2523182187
OKC28303332123

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (SA) games this season
SA away
home OKC
20% 80%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach Collins S 31 13 8 1
Julian Champagnie S 31 13 3 3
Devin Vassell S 25 12 3 4
Malaki Branham 26 11 2 0
Jeremy Sochan S 28 9 3 5
Victor Wembanyama S 28 8 14 2
Charles Bassey 17 6 7 1
Cedi Osman 15 6 0 0
Doug McDermott 18 5 1 1
Devonte' Graham 17 4 1 7
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 28 28 6 5
Josh Giddey S 25 18 7 7
Jalen Williams S 23 11 2 3
Cason Wallace 21 9 5 3
Kenrich Williams 15 9 0 2
Chet Holmgren S 30 9 7 3
Isaiah Joe 14 8 2 1
Vasilije Micic 19 8 1 4
Lindy Waters III 5 6 0 0
Luguentz Dort S 24 6 3 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Josh Giddey · Layup (2 pts) · 11:38 Q1
"Josh Giddey makes 1-foot layup (Chet Holmgren assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
15%
2 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
3 Luguentz Dort OKC
12%
4 Jalen Williams OKC
11%
5 Zach Collins SA
11%
6 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
7 Josh Giddey OKC
11%
8 Devin Vassell SA
9%
9 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
10 Doug McDermott SA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
4%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
75%
Jumper
9%
Layup
10%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 28.5 7.0 6.4
2 Victor Wembanyama SA 21.9 9.6 3.3
3 Jalen Williams OKC 20.0 4.6 4.0
4 Devin Vassell SA 17.8 3.8 2.9
5 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.4 7.9 2.9
6 Zach Collins SA 16.2 6.4 4.1
7 Josh Giddey OKC 14.4 6.1 5.5
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 13.8 5.0 1.8
9 Jeremy Sochan SA 11.9 5.7 4.7
10 Malaki Branham SA 8.8 2.1 2.1
11 Cason Wallace OKC 8.6 2.8 1.6
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.1 2.2 1.4
13 Cedi Osman SA 8.0 2.4 1.5
14 Doug McDermott SA 7.4 1.8 1.6
15 Jaylin Williams OKC 6.1 4.5 1.6
16 Davis Bertans OKC 4.6 1.4 0.7
17 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.5 1.1 4.2
18 Aaron Wiggins OKC 4.3 2.2 0.7
19 Charles Bassey SA 4.0 3.9 0.9
20 Tre Mann OKC 3.9 1.7 1.0
21 Devonte' Graham SA 3.7 1.6 0.5
22 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.7 1.4 0.7
23 Julian Champagnie SA 3.4 2.2 0.5
24 Dominick Barlow SA 3.1 1.2 0.4
25 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.0 1.2 0.5
26 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.9 1.0 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.