NBA games

ORL @ BKN

NBA Barclays Center ·Final
104–124
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ORL24362618104
BKN33243136124

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BKN) / 10 (ORL) games this season
ORL away
home BKN
56% 44%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Franz Wagner S 36 21 8 5
Paolo Banchero S 35 19 6 3
Goga Bitadze S 24 14 3 1
Joe Ingles 21 11 3 4
Moritz Wagner 21 11 6 4
Jalen Suggs S 32 10 2 2
Cole Anthony 28 10 6 2
Caleb Houstan 5 3 0 0
Jonathan Isaac 12 3 3 1
Anthony Black S 19 2 0 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Spencer Dinwiddie S 38 29 5 9
Mikal Bridges S 32 21 5 4
Cameron Johnson S 29 20 5 2
Royce O'Neale 34 13 4 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 24 11 10 0
Lonnie Walker IV 20 11 2 1
Nic Claxton S 21 8 6 0
Dennis Smith Jr. 19 6 3 5
Dorian Finney-Smith S 24 5 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Mikal Bridges · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:07 Q1
"Mikal Bridges makes 11-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paolo Banchero ORL
14%
2 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
3 Franz Wagner ORL
10%
4 Cam Thomas BKN
10%
5 Nic Claxton BKN
10%
6 Jalen Suggs ORL
8%
7 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
8%
8 Goga Bitadze ORL
8%
9 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
7%
10 Anthony Black ORL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
10%
Dunk
7%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
39%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 22.6 3.9 2.4
2 Mikal Bridges BKN 22.0 6.0 4.0
3 Paolo Banchero ORL 19.9 6.8 5.3
4 Franz Wagner ORL 18.8 5.7 3.6
5 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.4 3.4 2.0
6 Cole Anthony ORL 13.2 3.9 2.9
7 Jalen Suggs ORL 12.7 4.3 2.7
8 Cameron Johnson BKN 12.7 5.3 1.8
9 Moritz Wagner ORL 11.2 4.4 1.2
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 10.9 5.0 1.6
11 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 10.9 3.2 4.5
12 Nic Claxton BKN 9.5 6.8 1.7
13 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.4 5.6 3.1
14 Trendon Watford BKN 8.1 4.0 1.8
15 Harry Giles III BKN 7.2 4.6 0.4
16 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.9 5.8 0.8
17 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 5.8 2.0 2.4
18 Anthony Black ORL 5.5 2.7 1.4
19 Goga Bitadze ORL 5.0 4.6 1.1
20 Joe Ingles ORL 4.4 2.4 2.3
21 Jonathan Isaac ORL 4.4 3.0 0.5
22 Jett Howard ORL 3.6 0.7 0.4
23 Caleb Houstan ORL 3.3 1.1 0.3
24 Chuma Okeke ORL 1.8 1.3 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.