NBA games

IND @ PHI

NBA Xfinity Mobile Arena ·Final
132126
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
IND36273237132
PHI30244032126

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHI) / 10 (IND) games this season
IND away
home PHI
42% 58%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyrese Haliburton S 38 33 7 15
Obi Toppin S 37 27 6 1
Myles Turner S 19 17 3 0
Bruce Brown S 36 14 5 3
T.J. McConnell 13 11 3 3
Bennedict Mathurin S 16 8 0 0
Isaiah Jackson 17 7 9 2
Aaron Nesmith 22 6 4 2
Jalen Smith 3 5 0 1
Andrew Nembhard 10 2 2 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 38 39 12 6
De'Anthony Melton S 35 30 4 3
Tyrese Maxey S 38 27 4 5
Tobias Harris S 37 22 7 3
Paul Reed 10 2 1 1
Robert Covington S 16 2 1 1
Patrick Beverley 28 2 5 2
Marcus Morris Sr. 18 2 3 1
Furkan Korkmaz 2 0 0 0
Danuel House Jr. 18 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bennedict Mathurin · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:27 Q1
"Bennedict Mathurin makes 26-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Joel Embiid PHI
13%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
13%
3 Myles Turner IND
13%
4 Tyrese Maxey PHI
11%
5 Tyrese Haliburton IND
11%
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND
11%
7 De'Anthony Melton PHI
10%
8 Obi Toppin IND
9%
9 Bruce Brown IND
8%
10 Buddy Hield IND
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
1%
Free Throw
84%
Jumper
9%
Layup
4%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 33.5 11.1 5.7
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 27.5 5.0 7.4
3 Tyrese Haliburton IND 24.4 3.9 12.0
4 Tobias Harris PHI 20.7 6.6 3.6
5 Myles Turner IND 17.6 7.6 1.9
6 Bennedict Mathurin IND 13.8 4.5 2.7
7 Buddy Hield IND 12.2 3.7 3.1
8 Bruce Brown IND 11.7 4.3 2.5
9 De'Anthony Melton PHI 11.6 3.6 4.0
10 Aaron Nesmith IND 10.5 3.5 1.4
11 Jalen Smith IND 9.3 5.9 1.3
12 Andrew Nembhard IND 8.8 2.3 3.9
13 Obi Toppin IND 8.7 3.1 1.0
14 T.J. McConnell IND 7.1 2.5 4.3
15 Paul Reed PHI 5.4 5.0 1.2
16 Ben Sheppard IND 4.8 1.5 1.0
17 Robert Covington PHI 4.6 2.6 1.0
18 Jaden Springer PHI 4.4 2.3 0.9
19 Jarace Walker IND 4.3 3.0 1.3
20 Patrick Beverley PHI 4.3 3.0 1.7
21 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 4.0 1.4 0.8
22 KJ Martin PHI 3.6 1.8 0.6
23 Danuel House Jr. PHI 3.6 1.9 1.0
24 Isaiah Jackson IND 3.3 3.1 0.3
25 Jordan Nwora IND 3.2 1.1 0.7
26 Mo Bamba PHI 1.8 1.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.