NBA games

ATL @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
126–120
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
ATL38263329126
DET29313129120

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (ATL) games this season
ATL away
home DET
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dejounte Murray S 37 32 5 10
Saddiq Bey 27 19 4 2
Bogdan Bogdanovic S 34 17 3 3
Jalen Johnson S 36 16 5 1
De'Andre Hunter S 35 16 5 5
Clint Capela S 27 8 8 1
Onyeka Okongwu 21 8 9 2
AJ Griffin 8 5 0 0
Garrison Mathews 2 3 1 0
Trent Forrest 13 2 1 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Marvin Bagley III S 30 22 11 1
Ausar Thompson S 35 21 8 5
Alec Burks 23 16 2 5
Kevin Knox II 29 12 4 1
James Wiseman 14 11 4 1
Jaden Ivey 21 11 5 5
Isaiah Stewart S 19 10 1 0
Cade Cunningham S 38 9 3 12
Killian Hayes S 23 8 3 5
Marcus Sasser 8 0 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marvin Bagley III · Layup (2 pts) · 11:13 Q1
"Marvin Bagley III makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
14%
2 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
3 Dejounte Murray ATL
10%
4 Jalen Duren DET
10%
5 Clint Capela ATL
10%
6 Marvin Bagley III DET
9%
7 Jalen Johnson ATL
9%
8 Isaiah Stewart DET
9%
9 De'Andre Hunter ATL
8%
10 Killian Hayes DET
8%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
16%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
40%
Layup
23%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Dejounte Murray ATL 23.3 4.6 5.6
2 Cade Cunningham DET 22.6 4.2 8.3
3 Jalen Johnson ATL 15.1 7.7 2.6
4 Isaiah Stewart DET 14.2 6.6 2.0
5 Ausar Thompson DET 13.8 10.6 3.7
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.5 9.8 2.8
7 De'Andre Hunter ATL 13.4 4.3 1.8
8 Bogdan Bogdanovic ATL 12.4 3.1 3.0
9 Killian Hayes DET 12.1 3.6 4.9
10 Saddiq Bey ATL 11.8 5.1 1.4
11 Jaden Ivey DET 11.8 3.2 2.9
12 Alec Burks DET 11.0 3.0 2.1
13 Onyeka Okongwu ATL 10.2 6.4 1.5
14 Marcus Sasser DET 10.1 3.0 3.2
15 Clint Capela ATL 10.0 9.6 1.0
16 Marvin Bagley III DET 9.8 4.5 1.4
17 Kevin Knox II DET 9.7 2.9 1.2
18 James Wiseman DET 5.4 3.7 0.8
19 AJ Griffin ATL 4.2 1.2 0.7
20 Trent Forrest ATL 3.9 1.0 1.8
21 Joe Harris DET 3.8 0.9 0.8
22 Wesley Matthews ATL 3.6 2.0 0.8
23 Bruno Fernando ATL 3.5 2.3 0.8
24 Garrison Mathews ATL 3.2 0.9 0.4
25 Patty Mills ATL 1.6 0.6 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.