NBA games

MIA @ CHA

NBA Spectrum Center ·Final
111–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIA24333024111
CHA32163225105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHA) / 10 (MIA) games this season
MIA away
home CHA
60% 40%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jimmy Butler III S 34 32 4 5
Bam Adebayo S 36 21 11 4
Duncan Robinson S 36 18 8 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 33 17 5 1
Haywood Highsmith S 33 12 4 2
Josh Richardson 33 6 5 6
Kevin Love 14 3 3 1
Thomas Bryant 3 2 1 0
Dru Smith 3 0 0 0
Kyle Lowry S 15 0 1 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
P.J. Washington S 36 32 6 1
LaMelo Ball S 39 28 6 11
Bryce McGowens 29 12 4 1
Mark Williams S 23 11 7 0
Nick Richards 25 10 12 1
JT Thor S 28 5 4 1
Nick Smith Jr. 15 3 1 0
Ish Smith 19 2 2 3
Theo Maledon S 23 2 3 3
Leaky Black 3 0 0 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Bam Adebayo · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:45 Q1
"Bam Adebayo makes jumper (Duncan Robinson assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
15%
2 Mark Williams CHA
14%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
13%
4 Jimmy Butler III MIA
13%
5 P.J. Washington CHA
13%
6 Duncan Robinson MIA
8%
7 Kyle Lowry MIA
8%
8 Josh Richardson MIA
8%
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA
7%
10 Kevin Love MIA
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
18%
Jumper
46%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Bam Adebayo MIA 24.6 10.7 4.0
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 22.6 5.1 8.4
3 Jimmy Butler III MIA 20.7 6.4 3.9
4 P.J. Washington CHA 15.1 5.6 2.3
5 Mark Williams CHA 13.9 9.3 1.8
6 Duncan Robinson MIA 13.2 2.9 2.5
7 Kyle Lowry MIA 9.7 3.8 4.9
8 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 9.0 3.3 2.3
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA 8.9 2.9 1.7
10 Nick Richards CHA 8.5 6.1 1.0
11 Dru Smith MIA 7.6 2.7 3.6
12 Josh Richardson MIA 7.4 2.4 2.1
13 Kevin Love MIA 7.0 5.2 1.6
14 Theo Maledon CHA 6.3 2.3 2.2
15 JT Thor CHA 5.8 3.8 1.1
16 Thomas Bryant MIA 5.7 3.9 0.9
17 Nikola Jovic MIA 5.6 3.6 1.2
18 Orlando Robinson MIA 5.4 3.2 1.5
19 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.0 1.8 1.0
20 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.6 1.8 0.8
21 Ish Smith CHA 2.8 2.2 0.9
22 Amari Bailey CHA 2.4 1.2 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.