NBA games

OKC @ SAC

NBA Golden 1 Center ·Final
98–105
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
OKC2022282898
SAC34192230105

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SAC) / 10 (OKC) games this season
OKC away
home SAC
58% 42%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander S 38 33 7 5
Jalen Williams S 31 14 5 2
Josh Giddey S 27 13 4 5
Chet Holmgren S 30 12 7 1
Isaiah Joe 20 9 1 0
Luguentz Dort S 25 8 6 2
Cason Wallace 24 8 3 2
Jaylin Williams 18 1 4 2
Ousmane Dieng 8 0 1 1
Lindy Waters III 19 0 0 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Huerter S 34 28 9 2
Keegan Murray S 40 24 11 1
Domantas Sabonis S 38 17 13 13
Malik Monk 29 12 2 8
Keon Ellis S 31 8 4 2
Sasha Vezenkov 8 6 1 0
Harrison Barnes S 26 4 4 1
Davion Mitchell 17 3 1 1
Alex Len 10 3 6 0
Chris Duarte 5 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Domantas Sabonis · Layup (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Domantas Sabonis makes finger roll layup"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Domantas Sabonis SAC
14%
2 Jalen Williams OKC
12%
3 Josh Giddey OKC
11%
4 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC
11%
5 Kevin Huerter SAC
10%
6 Chet Holmgren OKC
10%
7 Harrison Barnes SAC
8%
8 Keon Ellis SAC
8%
9 Keegan Murray SAC
8%
10 Luguentz Dort OKC
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
9%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
21%
Layup
41%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC 25.5 6.6 6.4
2 Jalen Williams OKC 19.5 4.5 4.5
3 Domantas Sabonis SAC 18.9 12.3 6.7
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 17.2 7.3 2.7
5 Malik Monk SAC 15.6 3.0 5.3
6 Josh Giddey OKC 15.0 6.3 4.9
7 Keegan Murray SAC 13.0 5.6 2.2
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 12.9 4.5 1.6
9 Harrison Barnes SAC 11.7 3.2 1.6
10 Kevin Huerter SAC 10.9 4.3 2.7
11 Cason Wallace OKC 8.8 2.8 1.5
12 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.2 2.3 1.3
13 Davion Mitchell SAC 8.0 2.3 3.2
14 Jaylin Williams OKC 7.5 4.5 1.6
15 JaVale McGee SAC 7.3 3.9 0.9
16 Chris Duarte SAC 5.9 1.8 1.3
17 Davis Bertans OKC 5.7 1.3 0.7
18 Colby Jones SAC 5.7 1.9 1.0
19 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.5 2.2 0.8
20 Ousmane Dieng OKC 5.1 2.3 1.2
21 Sasha Vezenkov SAC 5.0 2.8 0.6
22 Vasilije Micic OKC 4.7 1.2 4.1
23 Keon Ellis SAC 4.7 2.3 0.8
24 Tre Mann OKC 3.6 1.6 1.0
25 Kessler Edwards SAC 3.6 2.3 0.8
26 Alex Len SAC 3.6 3.0 1.0
27 Lindy Waters III OKC 3.1 1.0 0.4
28 Jordan Ford SAC 2.8 0.9 0.4
29 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.6 1.0 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.