NBA games

LAL @ PHX

NBA Mortgage Matchup Center ·Final
122–119
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAL25303433122
PHX34293323119

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (PHX) / 10 (LAL) games this season
LAL away
home PHX
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
LeBron James S 36 32 11 6
D'Angelo Russell S 29 19 3 9
Anthony Davis S 36 18 11 4
Cam Reddish S 28 17 3 0
Austin Reaves 35 15 1 7
Rui Hachimura 20 7 3 1
Taurean Prince S 33 7 1 0
Christian Wood 18 5 9 0
Jaxson Hayes 5 2 1 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kevin Durant S 39 38 9 5
Bradley Beal S 32 24 4 2
Jusuf Nurkic S 33 14 9 7
Eric Gordon 28 13 2 2
Keita Bates-Diop S 30 11 5 0
Grayson Allen S 32 9 9 4
Jordan Goodwin 7 3 2 0
Yuta Watanabe 14 3 1 0
Josh Okogie 13 2 6 1
Drew Eubanks 14 2 5 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
LeBron James · Layup (2 pts) · 11:12 Q1
"LeBron James makes two point shot (Anthony Davis assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Davis LAL
14%
2 LeBron James LAL
11%
3 D'Angelo Russell LAL
10%
4 Kevin Durant PHX
10%
5 Austin Reaves LAL
9%
6 Bradley Beal PHX
8%
7 Jusuf Nurkic PHX
8%
8 Christian Wood LAL
7%
9 Taurean Prince LAL
7%
10 Keita Bates-Diop PHX
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
11%
Dunk
16%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
23%
Layup
35%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kevin Durant PHX 28.3 6.7 4.9
2 LeBron James LAL 24.9 7.5 5.5
3 Anthony Davis LAL 21.7 10.3 3.2
4 D'Angelo Russell LAL 17.7 3.7 5.8
5 Eric Gordon PHX 15.0 3.2 3.1
6 Austin Reaves LAL 14.7 4.3 4.0
7 Grayson Allen PHX 13.6 4.2 3.2
8 Jusuf Nurkic PHX 12.1 9.1 4.5
9 Bradley Beal PHX 11.1 3.2 3.0
10 Rui Hachimura LAL 9.9 4.0 1.2
11 Taurean Prince LAL 9.3 2.5 1.3
12 Josh Okogie PHX 8.9 3.9 1.7
13 Christian Wood LAL 7.8 5.6 1.4
14 Drew Eubanks PHX 7.6 6.2 2.4
15 Yuta Watanabe PHX 7.3 3.2 1.1
16 Jordan Goodwin PHX 7.0 4.2 1.9
17 Saben Lee PHX 6.7 1.8 2.2
18 Keita Bates-Diop PHX 6.3 3.9 1.3
19 Max Christie LAL 6.1 2.9 1.2
20 Cam Reddish LAL 5.8 2.7 1.2
21 Nassir Little PHX 4.5 2.0 0.8
22 Jalen Hood-Schifino LAL 4.3 2.7 3.3
23 Chimezie Metu PHX 4.3 2.0 0.7
24 Maxwell Lewis LAL 3.8 1.2 1.1
25 Bol Bol PHX 3.0 1.5 0.5
26 Jaxson Hayes LAL 2.7 2.3 0.6
27 Udoka Azubuike PHX 2.3 2.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.