NBA games

LAC @ DAL

NBA American Airlines Center ·Final
126–144
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
LAC33183837126
DAL30473829144

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DAL) / 10 (LAC) games this season
LAC away
home DAL
45% 55%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kawhi Leonard S 29 26 3 4
Bones Hyland 29 17 4 6
Russell Westbrook S 20 14 5 2
James Harden S 29 14 5 3
Ivica Zubac S 22 12 8 1
Terance Mann 29 11 6 3
Moussa Diabate 16 11 9 0
Paul George S 23 8 3 2
Kobe Brown 13 7 1 0
Amir Coffey 13 6 2 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 32 44 6 6
Kyrie Irving S 28 27 6 3
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 17 3 3
Jaden Hardy 12 11 2 0
Derrick Jones Jr. S 29 11 10 3
Dwight Powell 22 9 5 4
Dante Exum 18 8 2 6
Dereck Lively II S 26 6 4 1
Seth Curry 7 5 0 0
Josh Green 18 3 0 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Kawhi Leonard · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:23 Q1
"Kawhi Leonard makes 6-foot two point shot (James Harden assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Paul George LAC
13%
2 Kyrie Irving DAL
13%
3 Luka Doncic DAL
12%
4 Ivica Zubac LAC
10%
5 Dereck Lively II DAL
9%
6 Dwight Powell DAL
9%
7 Russell Westbrook LAC
9%
8 Kawhi Leonard LAC
9%
9 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
9%
10 Grant Williams DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
36%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
11%
Jumper
28%
Layup
20%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 29.4 7.9 7.6
2 Paul George LAC 21.8 5.0 3.9
3 Kyrie Irving DAL 20.1 4.6 6.9
4 Kawhi Leonard LAC 18.8 4.9 3.7
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 16.1 3.9 1.9
6 Russell Westbrook LAC 15.6 7.2 6.6
7 Bones Hyland LAC 12.7 2.8 3.2
8 Norman Powell LAC 12.0 2.7 1.7
9 Grant Williams DAL 11.7 4.4 1.7
10 Ivica Zubac LAC 10.5 7.9 1.0
11 Josh Green DAL 9.8 3.0 1.9
12 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 8.6 3.1 1.1
13 Dereck Lively II DAL 8.6 7.1 1.1
14 Jaden Hardy DAL 8.6 2.3 1.6
15 Terance Mann LAC 6.3 3.4 1.2
16 Dwight Powell DAL 5.6 3.6 0.9
17 Dante Exum DAL 4.2 2.4 1.7
18 Kobe Brown LAC 3.9 2.0 0.6
19 P.J. Tucker LAC 3.7 3.8 1.0
20 Moussa Diabate LAC 3.1 2.8 0.4
21 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 2.9 1.8 0.3
22 Amir Coffey LAC 2.8 1.1 0.8
23 Seth Curry DAL 2.5 1.1 0.5
24 Richaun Holmes DAL 2.5 2.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.