NBA games

MIN @ SA

NBA Frost Bank Center ·Final
117–110
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
MIN22343427117
SA27271937110

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (SA) / 10 (MIN) games this season
MIN away
home SA
83% 17%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Karl-Anthony Towns S 34 29 12 2
Anthony Edwards S 37 28 7 5
Mike Conley S 31 11 3 6
Rudy Gobert S 34 11 10 1
Jaden McDaniels S 26 10 5 0
Nickeil Alexander-Walker 19 9 3 4
Naz Reid 18 7 3 0
Kyle Anderson 26 6 5 4
Shake Milton 14 6 3 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Victor Wembanyama S 35 29 9 4
Devin Vassell S 35 29 3 4
Jeremy Sochan S 30 14 7 5
Zach Collins S 24 11 2 5
Tre Jones 26 8 4 4
Malaki Branham 16 6 2 1
Keldon Johnson S 33 6 5 1
Doug McDermott 14 3 0 1
Cedi Osman 16 2 0 2
Charles Bassey 11 2 6 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Zach Collins · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Zach Collins makes 6-foot hook shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Anthony Edwards MIN
14%
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN
12%
3 Keldon Johnson SA
11%
4 Victor Wembanyama SA
11%
5 Zach Collins SA
10%
6 Rudy Gobert MIN
10%
7 Jeremy Sochan SA
8%
8 Jaden McDaniels MIN
8%
9 Malaki Branham SA
7%
10 Mike Conley MIN
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
19%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
8%
Jumper
52%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Anthony Edwards MIN 25.0 6.0 5.2
2 Karl-Anthony Towns MIN 19.6 7.1 2.8
3 Victor Wembanyama SA 18.5 8.0 2.1
4 Keldon Johnson SA 15.4 5.5 3.8
5 Devin Vassell SA 15.1 3.2 2.3
6 Zach Collins SA 14.8 6.5 4.1
7 Naz Reid MIN 14.6 4.4 1.7
8 Rudy Gobert MIN 12.0 10.9 1.3
9 Jaden McDaniels MIN 11.3 3.6 1.8
10 Jeremy Sochan SA 10.5 5.7 4.3
11 Mike Conley MIN 9.5 2.8 3.5
12 Tre Jones SA 9.4 3.1 5.4
13 Malaki Branham SA 8.5 1.9 2.1
14 Cedi Osman SA 8.4 2.5 1.4
15 Kyle Anderson MIN 8.0 3.6 4.6
16 Shake Milton MIN 6.1 2.0 2.2
17 Doug McDermott SA 6.0 1.7 1.3
18 Nickeil Alexander-Walker MIN 5.5 2.6 2.2
19 Troy Brown Jr. MIN 5.0 2.5 0.9
20 Charles Bassey SA 4.4 3.2 1.0
21 Josh Minott MIN 4.3 2.2 1.3
22 Daishen Nix MIN 4.1 1.3 1.7
23 Julian Champagnie SA 3.9 2.5 0.7
24 Blake Wesley SA 3.9 1.8 2.0
25 Dominick Barlow SA 3.7 1.4 0.6
26 Devonte' Graham SA 3.7 1.7 0.6
27 Sandro Mamukelashvili SA 3.5 1.5 0.6

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.