NBA games

UTAH @ MEM

NBA FedExForum ·Final
127–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
UTAH34422724127
MEM32313226121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MEM) / 10 (UTAH) games this season
UTAH away
home MEM
41% 59%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jordan Clarkson S 36 26 4 4
Lauri Markkanen S 37 26 7 1
John Collins S 38 18 3 0
Ochai Agbaji S 30 15 6 1
Talen Horton-Tucker 18 13 3 2
Collin Sexton 18 10 2 6
Keyonte George S 30 7 3 11
Simone Fontecchio 12 6 2 1
Kelly Olynyk 21 6 8 2
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 38 37 4 8
Bismack Biyombo S 34 15 15 0
Jacob Gilyard S 34 14 4 8
Luke Kennard 21 14 1 1
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 23 14 4 2
Marcus Smart S 25 8 1 2
David Roddy 19 7 3 0
John Konchar 21 6 1 2
Santi Aldama 13 6 2 0
Kenneth Lofton Jr. 12 0 2 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jaren Jackson Jr. · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:47 Q1
"Jaren Jackson Jr. makes hook shot (Jacob Gilyard assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Desmond Bane MEM
20%
2 Jordan Clarkson UTAH
13%
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
13%
4 John Collins UTAH
13%
5 Lauri Markkanen UTAH
12%
6 Marcus Smart MEM
10%
7 Keyonte George UTAH
9%
8 Ochai Agbaji UTAH
9%
9 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH
0%
10 Kelly Olynyk UTAH
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
32%
Dunk
2%
Free Throw
22%
Jumper
20%
Layup
24%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 25.6 5.0 4.6
2 Lauri Markkanen UTAH 22.4 8.4 2.1
3 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 21.4 6.8 2.9
4 Jordan Clarkson UTAH 18.1 3.9 5.1
5 Marcus Smart MEM 16.3 3.3 6.3
6 John Collins UTAH 14.9 7.6 1.6
7 Collin Sexton UTAH 13.6 2.9 3.0
8 Talen Horton-Tucker UTAH 13.1 3.8 5.8
9 Santi Aldama MEM 11.8 5.8 1.9
10 David Roddy MEM 9.6 3.7 1.5
11 Keyonte George UTAH 8.2 2.5 3.7
12 Kelly Olynyk UTAH 7.7 4.7 3.5
13 Luke Kennard MEM 7.6 2.5 2.3
14 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 6.5 2.5 1.6
15 Kris Dunn UTAH 5.8 2.5 2.7
16 Ochai Agbaji UTAH 5.1 2.4 1.1
17 Simone Fontecchio UTAH 5.0 2.2 1.0
18 John Konchar MEM 4.8 4.2 1.0
19 Jacob Gilyard MEM 4.7 1.7 4.1
20 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 4.4 2.8 1.0
21 Luka Samanic UTAH 3.1 1.3 0.5
22 Omer Yurtseven UTAH 2.9 2.5 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.