NO @ HOU
NBA
Toyota Center (Houston)
·Final
101–104
Final
| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | 31 | 17 | 31 | 22 | 101 |
| HOU | 26 | 28 | 16 | 34 | 104 |
Statlab take
baseline_gbm
Last 10 (HOU) / 10 (NO) games this season
NO
away
home
HOU
39%
61%
GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.
Box score
| Player | MIN | PTS | REB | AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Ingram S | 39 | 31 | 6 | 5 |
| Zion Williamson S | 34 | 24 | 8 | 1 |
| Jonas Valanciunas S | 29 | 15 | 9 | 2 |
| Jordan Hawkins S | 41 | 14 | 7 | 1 |
| Dyson Daniels S | 41 | 10 | 10 | 2 |
| Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | 9 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Nance Jr. | 15 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Cody Zeller | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 16 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dereon Seabron | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
First basket
scorer · ROC 0.80Actual
Alperen Sengun ·
Jumper (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Alperen Sengun makes 11-foot two point shot (Fred VanVleet assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1
Zion Williamson
NO
13%
2
Alperen Sengun
HOU
13%
3
Brandon Ingram
NO
13%
4
Jalen Green
HOU
10%
5
Jabari Smith Jr.
HOU
8%
6
Fred VanVleet
HOU
8%
7
Jonas Valanciunas
NO
7%
8
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl
NO
7%
9
Dyson Daniels
NO
7%
10
Dillon Brooks
HOU
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
14%
Free Throw
17%
Jumper
34%
Layup
33%
Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.
Statlab projections
| # | Player | Team | Pred PTS | Pred REB | Pred AST |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Ingram | NO | 20.7 | 5.5 | 4.4 |
| 2 | Jalen Green | HOU | 19.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| 3 | Zion Williamson | NO | 19.1 | 6.2 | 4.5 |
| 4 | Alperen Sengun | HOU | 17.2 | 8.6 | 5.8 |
| 5 | Fred VanVleet | HOU | 16.1 | 3.6 | 6.7 |
| 6 | Dillon Brooks | HOU | 13.8 | 4.0 | 2.4 |
| 7 | Jabari Smith Jr. | HOU | 13.8 | 6.8 | 2.0 |
| 8 | Jonas Valanciunas | NO | 11.6 | 8.1 | 1.5 |
| 9 | Jordan Hawkins | NO | 10.9 | 3.3 | 1.6 |
| 10 | Tari Eason | HOU | 9.1 | 7.2 | 1.9 |
| 11 | Matt Ryan | NO | 8.4 | 2.5 | 1.6 |
| 12 | Dyson Daniels | NO | 7.8 | 4.0 | 2.6 |
| 13 | Jae'Sean Tate | HOU | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.4 |
| 14 | Nate Williams | HOU | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 15 | Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | NO | 5.6 | 4.2 | 1.5 |
| 16 | Jeff Green | HOU | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 17 | Jock Landale | HOU | 5.4 | 2.6 | 1.4 |
| 18 | Aaron Holiday | HOU | 5.4 | 2.3 | 1.9 |
| 19 | Larry Nance Jr. | NO | 5.3 | 3.9 | 0.9 |
| 20 | Dereon Seabron | NO | 5.3 | 2.0 | 1.2 |
| 21 | Kira Lewis Jr. | NO | 4.9 | 1.7 | 1.3 |
| 22 | Naji Marshall | NO | 4.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
| 23 | Boban Marjanovic | HOU | 3.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 |
| 24 | Reggie Bullock Jr. | HOU | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| 25 | Cody Zeller | NO | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 |
GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.