NBA games

BKN @ BOS

NBA TD Garden ·Final
107–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN33213023107
BOS38282728121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (BOS) / 10 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home BOS
23% 77%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Lonnie Walker IV 20 20 7 4
Trendon Watford 27 14 7 3
Dennis Smith Jr. 27 14 4 7
Mikal Bridges S 28 12 5 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 20 12 4 4
Cameron Johnson S 25 11 5 0
Dorian Finney-Smith S 27 9 3 2
Harry Giles III 6 7 1 0
Day'Ron Sharpe 13 5 3 1
Royce O'Neale S 27 3 3 4
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jaylen Brown S 29 28 3 5
Jayson Tatum S 33 23 10 3
Sam Hauser 25 15 2 1
Payton Pritchard 30 13 5 3
Jrue Holiday S 33 13 12 9
Derrick White S 27 11 4 5
Kristaps Porzingis S 25 9 2 2
Luke Kornet 18 7 9 1
Oshae Brissett 8 2 3 0
Svi Mykhailiuk 9 0 1 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jrue Holiday · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:39 Q1
"Jrue Holiday makes 7-foot two point shot (Jayson Tatum assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jayson Tatum BOS
14%
2 Kristaps Porzingis BOS
13%
3 Mikal Bridges BKN
12%
4 Derrick White BOS
11%
5 Jaylen Brown BOS
11%
6 Jrue Holiday BOS
10%
7 Ben Simmons BKN
9%
8 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
8%
9 Royce O'Neale BKN
7%
10 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
23%
Dunk
4%
Free Throw
16%
Jumper
40%
Layup
16%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Jayson Tatum BOS 25.5 9.2 4.6
2 Jaylen Brown BOS 21.9 5.1 3.4
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 20.5 5.0 4.0
4 Kristaps Porzingis BOS 18.6 7.0 1.7
5 Derrick White BOS 15.3 4.5 3.6
6 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 14.5 3.1 2.0
7 Jrue Holiday BOS 14.3 6.4 5.0
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 11.4 4.7 1.7
9 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 10.5 2.9 5.1
10 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.6 6.1 2.9
11 Sam Hauser BOS 8.1 3.2 1.1
12 Trendon Watford BKN 8.0 3.8 1.8
13 Ben Simmons BKN 7.7 8.1 5.7
14 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 7.4 6.7 0.7
15 Payton Pritchard BOS 6.5 2.4 3.6
16 Svi Mykhailiuk BOS 6.1 1.8 0.9
17 Dalano Banton BOS 4.7 1.8 0.8
18 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 4.6 1.7 1.4
19 Lamar Stevens BOS 4.4 2.6 0.7
20 Armoni Brooks BKN 3.9 1.2 0.4
21 Luke Kornet BOS 3.8 2.6 0.9
22 Oshae Brissett BOS 3.3 2.9 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.