NBA games

CHA @ WSH

NBA Capital One Arena ·Final
124–117
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
CHA22353136124
WSH27363420117

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (WSH) / 10 (CHA) games this season
CHA away
home WSH
50% 50%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Gordon Hayward S 36 27 5 9
LaMelo Ball S 38 25 6 6
Mark Williams S 30 21 24 3
Nick Richards 18 15 7 0
Brandon Miller S 32 12 3 2
P.J. Washington S 38 11 10 4
JT Thor 20 7 5 2
Theo Maledon 16 4 5 4
Bryce McGowens 13 2 2 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 29 17 6 1
Tyus Jones S 34 16 4 4
Corey Kispert 16 15 4 0
Jordan Poole S 31 14 2 6
Deni Avdija S 31 11 6 5
Landry Shamet 17 11 0 0
Bilal Coulibaly 20 10 2 1
Daniel Gafford S 30 10 9 1
Danilo Gallinari 18 9 1 4
Delon Wright 14 4 2 6

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Deni Avdija · Layup (2 pts) · 11:02 Q1
"Deni Avdija makes 2-foot two point shot (Kyle Kuzma assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Mark Williams CHA
15%
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH
13%
3 LaMelo Ball CHA
11%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
5 P.J. Washington CHA
10%
6 Gordon Hayward CHA
10%
7 Daniel Gafford WSH
8%
8 Brandon Miller CHA
8%
9 Tyus Jones WSH
8%
10 Deni Avdija WSH
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
1%
Dunk
50%
Free Throw
15%
Jumper
16%
Layup
18%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Kyle Kuzma WSH 24.4 6.4 4.0
2 LaMelo Ball CHA 21.0 5.2 7.9
3 Jordan Poole WSH 19.8 3.3 4.0
4 Gordon Hayward CHA 18.9 6.2 5.3
5 P.J. Washington CHA 18.2 5.8 2.4
6 Deni Avdija WSH 13.5 5.7 3.4
7 Mark Williams CHA 13.4 8.8 1.7
8 Brandon Miller CHA 12.9 5.2 2.2
9 Tyus Jones WSH 11.1 3.4 5.1
10 Corey Kispert WSH 9.6 2.5 1.8
11 Nick Richards CHA 8.3 6.9 1.0
12 Daniel Gafford WSH 8.1 6.5 1.1
13 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.5 2.7 1.2
14 Landry Shamet WSH 7.3 1.7 1.8
15 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 7.3 3.5 1.6
16 Theo Maledon CHA 6.5 2.1 1.8
17 Delon Wright WSH 6.3 2.6 3.3
18 Johnny Davis WSH 6.3 2.9 1.0
19 JT Thor CHA 6.1 4.1 1.1
20 Nick Smith Jr. CHA 5.6 2.2 1.0
21 Ryan Rollins WSH 5.1 2.4 1.7
22 Mike Muscala WSH 4.5 2.5 0.7
23 Bryce McGowens CHA 3.8 2.3 0.9
24 Anthony Gill WSH 3.6 2.1 0.9
25 Amari Bailey CHA 1.9 0.5 0.4
26 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.6 0.9 0.4

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.