NBA games

PHI @ DET

NBA Little Caesars Arena ·Final
114–106
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
PHI21273531114
DET33232129106

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DET) / 10 (PHI) games this season
PHI away
home DET
67% 33%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Joel Embiid S 36 33 16 3
Tyrese Maxey S 39 29 6 11
Tobias Harris S 38 24 5 2
De'Anthony Melton S 30 10 3 2
Kelly Oubre Jr. S 26 8 8 1
Robert Covington 14 3 0 0
Nicolas Batum 26 3 3 3
Paul Reed 12 2 4 0
Jaden Springer 5 2 0 0
Furkan Korkmaz 2 0 0 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Killian Hayes S 39 23 5 6
Cade Cunningham S 36 21 4 7
Ausar Thompson S 32 12 13 4
Stanley Umude 17 10 4 1
Isaiah Stewart S 32 10 6 2
Marcus Sasser 35 9 3 4
Marvin Bagley III 13 6 5 1
James Wiseman 7 6 4 0
Jared Rhoden 7 5 0 0
Jalen Duren S 23 4 4 3

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Cade Cunningham · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:42 Q1
"Cade Cunningham makes 16-foot step back jumpshot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Cade Cunningham DET
13%
2 Tobias Harris PHI
12%
3 Joel Embiid PHI
12%
4 Ausar Thompson DET
11%
5 Tyrese Maxey PHI
10%
6 Jalen Duren DET
10%
7 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI
9%
8 De'Anthony Melton PHI
8%
9 Killian Hayes DET
8%
10 Isaiah Stewart DET
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
6%
Free Throw
30%
Jumper
28%
Layup
19%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Joel Embiid PHI 33.2 11.0 5.5
2 Tyrese Maxey PHI 23.6 4.3 6.5
3 Cade Cunningham DET 22.7 4.2 8.5
4 Tobias Harris PHI 19.2 6.5 3.3
5 Kelly Oubre Jr. PHI 17.3 4.3 1.7
6 Jalen Duren DET 13.4 9.6 2.6
7 Isaiah Stewart DET 13.1 6.9 2.0
8 Ausar Thompson DET 12.8 10.1 3.5
9 Jaden Ivey DET 11.4 3.3 2.7
10 De'Anthony Melton PHI 11.3 3.7 4.3
11 Killian Hayes DET 10.8 3.2 4.6
12 Marcus Sasser DET 8.8 3.0 2.2
13 Marvin Bagley III DET 8.7 4.8 1.4
14 Paul Reed PHI 6.5 5.4 1.2
15 Nicolas Batum PHI 5.3 2.6 0.8
16 Robert Covington PHI 5.2 2.7 0.9
17 Furkan Korkmaz PHI 5.1 1.5 0.9
18 Patrick Beverley PHI 4.9 3.2 2.0
19 Jaden Springer PHI 4.7 2.3 0.9
20 James Wiseman DET 4.4 3.6 0.7
21 Stanley Umude DET 4.3 1.7 0.8
22 Malcolm Cazalon DET 4.3 0.9 1.0
23 KJ Martin PHI 3.6 1.9 0.6
24 Jared Rhoden DET 3.5 1.8 0.9
25 Danuel House Jr. PHI 2.4 1.7 0.7
26 Mo Bamba PHI 1.8 1.7 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.