NBA games

MEM @ POR

NBA Moda Center ·Final
113–115
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5T
MEM2627242511113
POR3321222613115

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 9 (POR) / 10 (MEM) games this season
MEM away
home POR
30% 70%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Desmond Bane S 45 33 8 7
Jaren Jackson Jr. S 38 30 10 3
David Roddy S 32 16 3 0
Ziaire Williams S 27 13 6 3
Marcus Smart S 39 8 3 4
Xavier Tillman 24 6 7 5
Luke Kennard 27 5 8 3
John Konchar 11 2 1 0
Vince Williams Jr. 10 0 2 1
Jacob Gilyard 12 0 0 3
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Jerami Grant S 44 26 8 3
Malcolm Brogdon S 44 24 7 10
Shaedon Sharpe S 46 22 5 2
Deandre Ayton S 36 16 12 2
Skylar Mays 15 9 1 1
Robert Williams III 20 8 10 0
Toumani Camara 31 5 3 1
Matisse Thybulle S 19 5 0 0
Jabari Walker 9 0 4 0

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Marcus Smart · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:35 Q1
"Marcus Smart makes 13-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jerami Grant POR
15%
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR
13%
3 Marcus Smart MEM
12%
4 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM
12%
5 Deandre Ayton POR
12%
6 Desmond Bane MEM
12%
7 Xavier Tillman MEM
8%
8 Matisse Thybulle POR
8%
9 Ziaire Williams MEM
7%
10 Malcolm Brogdon POR
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
17%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
14%
Jumper
29%
Layup
32%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Desmond Bane MEM 25.4 4.6 4.0
2 Shaedon Sharpe POR 20.2 5.5 3.6
3 Marcus Smart MEM 18.4 3.4 6.1
4 Malcolm Brogdon POR 17.7 4.6 4.1
5 Jaren Jackson Jr. MEM 17.6 7.0 2.5
6 Jerami Grant POR 17.5 4.2 1.8
7 Ziaire Williams MEM 11.4 4.8 1.7
8 Deandre Ayton POR 11.4 11.6 1.9
9 David Roddy MEM 9.9 4.4 1.9
10 Xavier Tillman MEM 9.3 6.6 1.8
11 Robert Williams III POR 8.0 6.8 1.6
12 Jabari Walker POR 7.5 4.8 1.1
13 Kenneth Lofton Jr. MEM 6.8 2.6 1.5
14 Toumani Camara POR 6.8 3.9 1.6
15 Vince Williams Jr. MEM 6.5 3.6 1.3
16 Jake LaRavia MEM 6.2 2.5 0.9
17 John Konchar MEM 5.9 5.1 1.3
18 Matisse Thybulle POR 5.6 1.7 1.1
19 Skylar Mays POR 5.6 1.4 2.5
20 Luke Kennard MEM 5.4 1.8 1.8
21 Jacob Gilyard MEM 5.0 2.0 4.3
22 Kris Murray POR 3.9 2.2 0.8
23 Moses Brown POR 3.3 3.2 0.4
24 Rayan Rupert POR 2.0 1.0 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.