NBA games

DAL @ DEN

NBA Ball Arena ·Final
114–125
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
DAL24313227114
DEN40303223125

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (DEN) / 8 (DAL) games this season
DAL away
home DEN
28% 72%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luka Doncic S 38 34 10 8
Kyrie Irving S 35 22 1 7
Josh Green 27 13 5 2
Grant Williams S 33 13 5 2
Tim Hardaway Jr. 27 9 3 2
Derrick Jones Jr. S 17 7 1 1
Dwight Powell 17 6 1 1
Jaden Hardy 14 6 3 3
Dereck Lively II S 25 4 4 0
Seth Curry 5 0 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Nikola Jokic S 36 33 14 9
Michael Porter Jr. S 34 24 9 1
Aaron Gordon S 35 18 8 6
Jamal Murray S 39 18 2 13
Christian Braun 15 9 5 0
Reggie Jackson 20 8 1 2
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope S 37 8 5 1
Zeke Nnaji 12 4 4 0
Peyton Watson 13 3 3 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Derrick Jones Jr. · Layup (2 pts) · 11:31 Q1
"Derrick Jones Jr. makes two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Kyrie Irving DAL
11%
2 Michael Porter Jr. DEN
9%
3 Jamal Murray DEN
9%
4 Nikola Jokic DEN
9%
5 Aaron Gordon DEN
9%
6 Dereck Lively II DAL
8%
7 DeAndre Jordan DEN
8%
8 Luka Doncic DAL
8%
9 Grant Williams DAL
7%
10 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL
7%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
9%
Free Throw
3%
Jumper
48%
Layup
17%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Luka Doncic DAL 27.9 7.6 6.6
2 Nikola Jokic DEN 25.2 11.2 7.0
3 Jamal Murray DEN 18.7 3.7 6.9
4 Kyrie Irving DAL 16.0 4.6 5.6
5 Tim Hardaway Jr. DAL 15.7 3.9 1.9
6 Michael Porter Jr. DEN 12.2 7.4 1.9
7 Aaron Gordon DEN 11.2 5.4 2.7
8 Kentavious Caldwell-Pope DEN 11.1 2.7 1.8
9 Grant Williams DAL 11.0 4.7 1.6
10 Jaden Hardy DAL 9.9 2.6 1.9
11 Josh Green DAL 9.7 3.0 1.6
12 Reggie Jackson DEN 9.6 2.5 2.8
13 Christian Braun DEN 9.5 6.2 2.7
14 Julian Strawther DEN 9.3 1.9 1.1
15 Derrick Jones Jr. DAL 7.9 2.6 0.8
16 Peyton Watson DEN 7.5 3.3 1.4
17 Dereck Lively II DAL 7.1 6.7 1.3
18 Zeke Nnaji DEN 6.8 4.0 1.1
19 Dante Exum DAL 5.1 2.4 2.4
20 Dwight Powell DAL 4.9 3.0 0.5
21 Justin Holiday DEN 4.8 1.6 1.1
22 Braxton Key DEN 4.6 2.7 1.5
23 DeAndre Jordan DEN 4.5 2.9 3.1
24 Jalen Pickett DEN 4.4 1.4 1.3
25 Seth Curry DAL 4.0 1.7 0.6
26 Collin Gillespie DEN 3.5 0.9 1.1
27 Olivier-Maxence Prosper DAL 3.4 2.0 0.3
28 Richaun Holmes DAL 1.2 2.3 0.2

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.