NBA games

GS @ OKC

NBA Paycom Center ·Final
141–139
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
GS38313735141
OKC33343933139

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (OKC) / 10 (GS) games this season
GS away
home OKC
51% 49%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Stephen Curry S 31 30 8 7
Dario Saric 20 20 6 3
Jonathan Kuminga 22 19 2 1
Klay Thompson S 33 18 3 1
Andrew Wiggins S 27 17 5 1
Draymond Green S 29 15 5 3
Gary Payton II 22 9 3 1
Moses Moody 18 8 1 2
Kevon Looney S 11 4 3 4
Chris Paul 28 1 2 13
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Luguentz Dort S 30 29 5 0
Chet Holmgren S 32 24 8 5
Jalen Williams S 35 18 3 8
Josh Giddey S 31 18 5 4
Isaiah Joe 26 16 0 1
Cason Wallace S 36 13 2 1
Aaron Wiggins 17 7 2 0
Jaylin Williams 15 6 5 3
Vasilije Micic 12 5 1 3
Ousmane Dieng 5 3 1 1

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Chet Holmgren · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:48 Q1
"Chet Holmgren makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Jalen Williams assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Jalen Williams OKC
15%
2 Josh Giddey OKC
14%
3 Chet Holmgren OKC
12%
4 Andrew Wiggins GS
11%
5 Draymond Green GS
10%
6 Kevon Looney GS
10%
7 Klay Thompson GS
9%
8 Luguentz Dort OKC
9%
9 Stephen Curry GS
8%
10 Jonathan Kuminga GS
0%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
20%
Jumper
23%
Layup
26%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Stephen Curry GS 24.1 4.9 4.1
2 Jonathan Kuminga GS 18.7 5.0 2.6
3 Jalen Williams OKC 18.2 4.5 3.9
4 Chet Holmgren OKC 16.0 6.6 2.1
5 Josh Giddey OKC 14.8 6.3 4.8
6 Klay Thompson GS 13.0 4.2 2.0
7 Andrew Wiggins GS 11.8 3.0 1.5
8 Luguentz Dort OKC 11.8 3.4 1.2
9 Chris Paul GS 11.1 4.3 6.6
10 Draymond Green GS 10.4 4.8 6.2
11 Dario Saric GS 9.2 5.2 2.1
12 Moses Moody GS 9.1 3.4 1.3
13 Isaiah Joe OKC 8.0 2.1 1.2
14 Cason Wallace OKC 7.2 2.7 1.5
15 Ousmane Dieng OKC 7.1 3.1 1.9
16 Kevon Looney GS 6.9 8.1 2.2
17 Gary Payton II GS 6.4 2.8 1.3
18 Davis Bertans OKC 5.7 0.9 0.5
19 Aaron Wiggins OKC 5.4 2.3 0.7
20 Vasilije Micic OKC 5.1 1.2 4.2
21 Lindy Waters III OKC 4.5 1.5 0.7
22 Tre Mann OKC 4.2 1.8 1.1
23 Olivier Sarr OKC 3.9 4.2 0.7
24 Jerome Robinson GS 3.7 2.2 0.8
25 Cory Joseph GS 2.9 1.6 1.8
26 Aleksej Pokusevski OKC 1.9 1.2 0.5

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.