NBA games

BKN @ CHI

NBA United Center ·Final
109–107
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
BKN35241931109
CHI30282227107

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (CHI) / 8 (BKN) games this season
BKN away
home CHI
89% 11%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Dorian Finney-Smith S 33 21 3 0
Mikal Bridges S 33 20 2 3
Cam Thomas S 31 17 5 4
Lonnie Walker IV 16 11 1 1
Spencer Dinwiddie S 31 10 3 9
Royce O'Neale 32 9 5 8
Ben Simmons S 33 8 9 6
Dennis Smith Jr. 16 7 1 1
Day'Ron Sharpe 15 6 10 0
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Zach LaVine S 38 24 7 5
DeMar DeRozan S 33 24 1 4
Coby White S 35 18 3 2
Nikola Vucevic S 36 13 13 3
Patrick Williams 21 10 5 1
Andre Drummond 12 7 4 0
Jevon Carter 14 5 1 0
Torrey Craig S 23 3 6 4
Alex Caruso 26 3 2 2

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Torrey Craig · 3PT (3 pts) · 11:24 Q1
"Torrey Craig makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Zach LaVine CHI
17%
2 DeMar DeRozan CHI
12%
3 Nikola Vucevic CHI
12%
4 Mikal Bridges BKN
10%
5 Ben Simmons BKN
9%
6 Cam Thomas BKN
9%
7 Coby White CHI
8%
8 Patrick Williams CHI
7%
9 Royce O'Neale BKN
6%
10 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
22%
Dunk
8%
Free Throw
10%
Jumper
33%
Layup
27%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Cam Thomas BKN 21.9 3.8 2.5
2 Zach LaVine CHI 21.8 4.3 2.7
3 Mikal Bridges BKN 19.8 5.0 3.7
4 DeMar DeRozan CHI 19.5 3.8 3.7
5 Nikola Vucevic CHI 17.0 10.4 2.3
6 Lonnie Walker IV BKN 15.2 3.2 2.2
7 Coby White CHI 13.3 3.3 4.1
8 Dorian Finney-Smith BKN 11.4 3.7 1.7
9 Trendon Watford BKN 10.4 4.6 2.0
10 Spencer Dinwiddie BKN 9.6 2.1 4.3
11 Royce O'Neale BKN 9.4 5.5 2.5
12 Ben Simmons BKN 9.3 8.4 6.8
13 Patrick Williams CHI 8.7 3.3 1.7
14 Alex Caruso CHI 7.3 3.9 2.1
15 Torrey Craig CHI 6.5 3.9 1.3
16 Armoni Brooks BKN 6.4 1.9 0.8
17 Andre Drummond CHI 6.4 6.7 1.2
18 Jevon Carter CHI 6.4 1.7 1.8
19 Day'Ron Sharpe BKN 5.9 6.0 0.6
20 Dennis Smith Jr. BKN 3.2 1.5 0.9
21 Terry Taylor CHI 3.1 2.9 1.0
22 Jalen Wilson BKN 3.0 1.3 0.5
23 Julian Phillips CHI 2.7 1.3 0.3
24 Dalen Terry CHI 2.3 1.7 0.9

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.