NBA games

WSH @ MIA

NBA Kaseya Center ·Final
114–121
Final
Q1Q2Q3Q4T
WSH34202733114
MIA34264120121

Statlab take

baseline_gbm
Last 10 (MIA) / 8 (WSH) games this season
WSH away
home MIA
57% 43%

GBT team-winner trained on ~3 seasons of NBA games (68.8% holdout accuracy). Features: 10-game rolling form / points-for / points-against diff + rest days + back-to-back flags.

Box score

Player MIN PTS REB AST
Kyle Kuzma S 31 22 4 3
Jordan Poole S 28 19 1 6
Deni Avdija S 24 14 4 3
Johnny Davis 13 11 1 0
Bilal Coulibaly 26 9 3 3
Tyus Jones S 24 7 2 5
Ryan Rollins 7 7 1 2
Danilo Gallinari 9 6 3 3
Anthony Gill 7 6 2 0
Mike Muscala 12 5 1 1
Player MIN PTS REB AST
Tyler Herro S 37 24 10 9
Jimmy Butler III S 31 20 7 2
Bam Adebayo S 30 18 4 3
Duncan Robinson 30 18 1 6
Thomas Bryant 18 11 4 0
Josh Richardson 26 10 3 5
Jaime Jaquez Jr. 22 9 5 3
Haywood Highsmith S 22 8 0 0
Kyle Lowry S 26 3 3 7

First basket

scorer · ROC 0.80
Trained on 67736 player-games
Actual
Jimmy Butler III · Jumper (2 pts) · 11:34 Q1
"Jimmy Butler makes 14-foot two point shot"
Most likely first scorer (top 10)
1 Bam Adebayo MIA
13%
2 Jimmy Butler III MIA
13%
3 Kyle Kuzma WSH
11%
4 Jordan Poole WSH
10%
5 Tyler Herro MIA
8%
6 Daniel Gafford WSH
8%
7 Tyus Jones WSH
7%
8 Deni Avdija WSH
7%
9 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA
7%
10 Mike Muscala WSH
6%
Method (given top scorer)
3PT
2%
Dunk
21%
Free Throw
19%
Jumper
22%
Layup
37%

Per-player binary classifier — features: starter status, recent PPG/FGA/3PM, starter-rate, home/away. Probabilities normalized so the field sums to 100%.

Statlab projections

Trained on 68258 player-games; PTS MAE 4.7 (naive 6.8)
# Player Team Pred PTS Pred REB Pred AST
1 Tyler Herro MIA 25.0 4.7 4.8
2 Kyle Kuzma WSH 23.7 6.5 3.4
3 Bam Adebayo MIA 20.8 8.4 3.0
4 Jordan Poole WSH 18.9 3.5 3.3
5 Jimmy Butler III MIA 18.9 7.8 3.5
6 Deni Avdija WSH 12.4 6.1 2.3
7 Tyus Jones WSH 11.4 3.4 4.9
8 Duncan Robinson MIA 9.8 2.9 2.0
9 Haywood Highsmith MIA 9.6 2.9 1.7
10 Eugene Omoruyi WSH 8.5 3.1 0.8
11 Kyle Lowry MIA 8.4 3.4 4.0
12 Thomas Bryant MIA 8.1 4.8 1.2
13 Johnny Davis WSH 8.0 3.8 1.3
14 Danilo Gallinari WSH 7.7 2.7 1.1
15 Daniel Gafford WSH 7.3 6.2 0.6
16 Bilal Coulibaly WSH 6.8 4.0 1.6
17 Dru Smith MIA 6.8 1.9 3.9
18 Jaime Jaquez Jr. MIA 6.7 3.6 1.9
19 Nikola Jovic MIA 6.4 4.3 1.4
20 Kevin Love MIA 6.3 5.9 1.6
21 Orlando Robinson MIA 6.2 4.0 1.7
22 Josh Richardson MIA 6.0 2.7 1.8
23 Mike Muscala WSH 5.8 3.5 1.0
24 Delon Wright WSH 5.7 2.8 4.2
25 Ryan Rollins WSH 5.2 2.3 1.4
26 Anthony Gill WSH 3.7 1.8 1.5
27 Patrick Baldwin Jr. WSH 1.8 1.1 0.3

GBT MultiOutput regressor per player — 9 targets (PTS/REB/AST/STL/BLK/TO/MIN/FG/3PT). Features: rolling form last 10 games + opponent allowed averages + rest days. Sorted by predicted PTS.